Set Yourself Apart and Be Noticed

Feedback in:

Hi Michael,

Again, appreciate everything. You are a great teacher and mentor. I do not miss a podcast. My only beef is a compliment. More rants needed. Your last I found very insightful. Uncorrelated returns is of particular interest because our fund has demonstrated miniscule correlation to both indexes and peers. We have run a relatively net short healthcare fund since inception 9 years ago, and have managed to survive and perform. The most difficult task has been differentiating ourselves to potential investors while the entire sector rages higher. Fortunately, the right investors have taken notice and our assets have gone from 50M to 230M in 18 months.

What I found particularly compelling and coincidental about your rant is that we were recently sought out by a huge institution looking to build a book of 10 managers with track records of double digit annual returns with little correlation. That institution is [Name] (did not hear from me). The manager discussed the strategy to us, although not as concise and eloquent as you did in 20 minutes. Would love to see that piece if you have it handy, thanks.

Also, need to make it out to Ho Chi Minh. You sell the single life out there well.

Best,
[Name]

Thanks!

Posted in Feedback, Trend Following

All Podcast Episodes

Michael Covel in Japan

Michael Covel in Japan

Note: These episodes play by clicking “listen”. You may also want to “save as” each file to your device. All episodes on iTunes too.

Michael Covel in Singapore

Michael Covel in Singapore

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Posted in Interviews, Multimedia, Podcasts, Psychology, Systems Trading, Trading 101, Trend Following

Trend Following Wisdom from Dalio

A recent email in:

(Indavertent) TF Wisdom from Dalio:

“To make money in the markets, you have to think independently and be humble. You have to be an independent thinker because you can’t make money agreeing with the consensus view, which is already embedded in the price. Yet whenever you’re betting against the consensus there’s a significant probability you’re going to be wrong, so you have to be humble.”

Wisdom from a man that knows how to trade unexpected trends in a 100% systematic fashion.

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Posted in Feedback, Trading 101, Trend Following

Ep. 336: Colin Camerer Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Synopsis: Michael Covel speaks with Colin Camerer on today’s podcast. Camerer is an American behavioral economist and a Robert Kirby Professor of Behavioral Finance and Economics at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech). Camerer’s research is on the interface between cognitive psychology and economics. This work seeks a better understanding of the psychological and neurobiological basis of decision-making in order to determine the validity of models of human economic behavior. His research uses mostly economics experiments—and occasionally field studies—to understand how people behave when making decisions (e.g., risky gambles for money), in games, and in markets (e.g., speculative price bubbles). Covel and Camerer discuss why Camerer was called a child prodigy, and how he looks at that term in the context of nurture vs. nature; synthesizing behavioral economics and neuroscience; understanding Camerer’s studies when traders aren’t looking at the market on a day-to-day basis; how we can stimulate the brain to create a bubble; the ethical issues surrounding Camerer’s work; machine learning and data mining; neuroscience and game theory; comparing humans and chimps in the study of neuroscience; how trust correlates with economic growth; and how emotion functions in the modern world. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Colin Camerer Interview with Michael Covel

Colin Camerer Interview with Michael Covel

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Posted in Economics, Psychology

“Your Books and Podcast Had A Decisive Influence on My Investment Success”

Feedback in:

Dear Michael,

Thanks a lot for connecting. I have been following your outstanding work for many years and the information I gathered from your books and podcasts had a decisive influence on my investment success.

After studying “trend following” with your books I have started to trade futures with a small trading account and after the usual complications at the beginning, I have been quite successful with your strategy.

Besides trading, your podcasts have brought to me brilliant insights into other areas, (Media, Psychology, Politics, etc.) for which I am very grateful.

Thanks a lot for your inspiration and please keep on doing what you do. It is surely very important to many people.

Best regards from Singapore.
[Name]

Thanks!

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Posted in Endorsements, Feedback, Trend Following

JWH, Farming and Trend Following: New Trader Inspiration

Feedback in:

I just wanted to start off by saying thank you for making so many resources readily available to learn more about trend following trading.

I have been trading commodity futures for a little over 2 years now and have just recently (within the last 3 months) introduced to trend following trading. Trend following is the trading method that makes the most sense to me and the only method I can see leading to a lifetime of returns. Just recently started reading your Trend Following book and it is already resonating with me and enforcing the idea that this is the trading system for me.

I have also been an avid listener of your podcasts. Really enjoy that you dive in to more than just the trading systems themselves but rather how the individuals got their start and found trend following. I also am a fan of the podcasts that discuss the mental side of trading–the most important part.

One final question, from learning more about the trend following world have become interested in learning more about John W. Henry because like him I am a young farmer. Would ever be a guest on the podcast?

Thanks again and look forward to hearing from you.

[Name]

John W. Henry would be a great guest.

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Posted in Feedback, Trend Following

Gotta Lie To Get Invited Back

After posting the below commentary on my Facebook page I got an interesting response:

This exchange followed:

Alan: Thank you for your thoughtful analysis of my market commentary March 16th. A “Trend Follower” should appreciate my confidence and reasoning that the bull run is still intact. As a market veteran of 25 years with thousands of TV appearances this may be a great opportunity to discuss the insignificance of news nonsense with your podcast listeners. Pick a time I would like to come on to talk media and its negative impact on trading discipline. I am the first to tell traders to turn off the TV as there is very little to help you make money. It is mostly infotainment to keep you emotional and tuned in to pay advertisers. In fact, I have developed a financial news aggregator to search, sort and share market video. The time saving app breaks down the markets into categories and plots the videos from news sources on price and time charts for perspective. That said I make the best effort to give a well thought out actionable trade idea on each of my appearances as opposed to speaking in broad generalizations. Trading is all about risk control, probability, money management and implementation of a trading plan. It should be methodical and boring and as we all know watching television to cheer lead positions does not add to profitability. Looking forward to schedule the podcast interview.

Covel: Hold on. You are the guy on CNN? The guy with videos literally every day providing near useless fundamental factoids and interpretations of what will happen next? And now you are emailing me to say trading is all about risk control, probability, money management and implementation of a trading plan. Don’t you think that is disingenuous? You tell me you have made 1000s of appearances, but [now] you tell people not to watch? I am not [Jim] Cramer. My podcast is not that. Best we agree to disagree right here, unless you can convince me how my eyes are lying to me when I watch your videos of broad generalizations.

Alan: I cannot change the game if I do not appear on TV. Producers and hosts do not understand the markets and create a crisis de jour. My job is to be optimistic of opportunities in any and all market conditions. Stressing a plan of action instead of fear is what I do. Having CNBC on for 10 hours a day or watching Cramer doesn’t help anybody make money. At best it may give 2-3 nuggets of information that could be explored for profit potential. People think news helps when in fact the WHY is of no importance compared to the HOW the market is moving.

Covel: You can’t let the TV hand feed you non-stop and then bite the same hand. None of what you are saying to me was on CNN.

Alan: I gave CNN reasons why I remain optimistic at a time when investors have renewed fears. Calm confidence. Participating in the TV discussion is more productive than not doing so to showcase my disciplined approach. My development of the [name] shows my recognition of this news noise issue and the need to better inform investors.

Covel: Maybe you know the truth, but to appear on TV so much is for you to play a game–their game. Try appearing on TV and tell the real truth. They won’t ask you back. Then you will have made a real advance in your credibility.

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Posted in Holy Grails, Multimedia, Trend Following

Trend Following Radio Feedback

Feedback in:

Michael,

Hope all is well. I thought it was only appropriate to connect with you after listening to probably around 100 of your podcasts. I live in Silver Spring and every day on my commute to Exelon (energy company, where I work in Baltimore), I listen to your podcasts.

I am 27-years old now and for the past 4-5 years I have been learning how to trade based on technical analysis and price action. A few years ago, I learned that simple is better in terms of indicators/trade setups and risk management is key to not blowing up my account. My current strategy consists of two general trades; swing trades (buying on pullbacks to long term trend lines) and buying breakouts of consolidations or to new highs. The indicators I use are trend lines (horizontal/diagonal), volume, candlesticks, moving averages as support and resistance and relative strength vs the S&P 500.

After listening to many of your podcasts, the commonalities between the traders and portfolio managers are apparent and have become part of the way I think and part of my rules. I am emailing you for two reasons; firstly, to thank you for all the great podcasts and for giving me a place to hear from like-minded individuals. Secondly, I am trying to find a a mentor to help me find a way to turn my part time hobby/passion outside of work, into a career. Are there any trend following/price action based traders/portfolio managers that you know of in the Washington, DC metro area? Also, if you have some time, it would be great to talk with you.

Have a great weekend Sunday in Asia.

Regards,
[Name]

Thanks for the note. Many issues related to mentorship are sprinkled throughout my podcast monologues. Circle back on those. More thoughts on mentorship? The DIY effort seen across Godin blog–is highly recommended.

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Posted in Endorsements, Feedback, Trend Following

Ep. 335: The Bitcoin Episode with Andreas Antonopoulos & Harry Yeh Interviews with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Synopsis: Michael Covel speaks with Andreas Antonopoulos and Harry Yeh on today’s two-part Bitcoin episode. Andreas Antonopoulos is a technologist and serial entrepreneur who has become one of the most well-known and well-respected figures in Bitcoin. With Antonopoulos, Covel discusses acceptance of Bitcoin, and if the State could outlaw it; Third World and Second World acceptance of Bitcoin; the infrastructural needs for Bitcoin; Bitcoin fees and the cost of securing the network; currency issuance; why Bitcoin doesn’t rely on trust; why financial transactions are the most surveilled part of your life in America; the privacy aspect of Bitcoin; currency volatility and the difference between volatility and stability; and where you can get started with Bitcoin. Harry Yeh is Managing Partner at Binary Financial. Binary Financial LLC is an Investment management company focused on the crypto currency space, trading and facilitating large block trades for high net worth individuals and institutions. With Yeh, Covel discusses why Bitcoin is the most volatile alternative asset class, but why it still might be worth it to trade; how Bitcoin is a split between a commodity and a currency right now; being a speculator in Bitcoin and trading Bitcoin like futures contracts; Bitcoin adoption in China; why Bitcoin is tough as a store of value, but as great a trading opportunity; and finally, recommendations on Bitcoin wallets. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Andreas Antonopoulos on The Bitcoin Episode

Andreas Antonopoulos on The Bitcoin Episode

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Posted in Economics, Interviews, Multimedia, Podcasts, Trading 101

Recreating the Turtle Experiement in the Information Age

A recent interchange:

Listener: As you know most new Macs don’t have DVD drives. Do you have a download to buy Broke?

Covel: It’s on Amazon and iTunes.

Listener: Thanks. And how about the DVD you send to people who sign up for your newsletter?

Covel: Here.

Listener: Thank you.

A few days later the same listener writes:

Listener: Michael, one of the best trades I make is listening to your podcast at night instead of going out to bars with my friends that don’t understand the value of time. I’ve had email conversations with Jerry Parker, [name] and a response from Salem Abraham. Wondering if you have any suggestions on how I may make a trade with them to take me under their wing and teach me as Richard Dennis taught Jerry and other Turtles? At 26-years old I don’t have as much to offer a billionaire as the value they’d be adding to my life and future income [is far greater].

Covel: No secrets on meeting people. Do read [Seth] Godin book, “Linchpin“. But you need to think carefully about the time needed to become an employee versus just being the boss from the beginning. The Turtle experiment will never be repeated as it was.

Listener: I’ll order it now. I’ve always been my own boss. I don’t want to work for them, I want to be mentored by them. But I can’t ask for value without offering them value. You know them. What could I offer them in return for mentorship? Never say never. You wouldn’t be where you are if you believed in never. Doesn’t mean we cant orchestrate a different version of the experiment.

Covel: DIY. The time wasted chasing the boss, or mentor, can be great. Much of the information and insights and mentoring you want is in front of you. But you want something else–so you don’t see it.

Listener: Your podcast is nothing but people who believed in themselves and didn’t listen to others when they said they couldn’t do something, including yourself. Really surprised you are so quick to discourage me from seeking mentorship. I know the way the experiment was done is extraordinary and rare. Doesn’t mean we can’t figure something out that could persuade Jerry or Salem or at least intrigue them.

Covel: You are not the only one to contact all these great traders in the day of the information age. They only have so much time. Best advice: DIY.

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Posted in Feedback, Trend Following
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