Proprietary Trading Systems for Stocks, Futures, Currencies, ETFs, LEAPS & Commodities Trading Insights that Government, Media and Wall Street Don't Want You to Know
For example, here are some of the Turtle backgrounds:
Collin’s Commodities – Commodities Accountant
Rosati’s Pizza – Kitchen help
University of Notre Dame – Philosophy/French
Budget Copy Systems, Inc. – Vice President
P.S.G Inc. – Manger
University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) – Political Science
University of California, Berkeley – Law
Caterpillar Tractor Co. – Open Consultancy
United States Air Force Academy – Philosophy/Math
American Graduate School of Intl. Mgmt.
Continental Grain Company – Grain Merchandiser
Johnson Graduate School of Management – Finance (MBA)
Catholic University of Louvaine – Applied Economics
Brown University – Economics/Geology
Cushman/Wakefield CBT Security – Security
Central Connecticut State University – Marketing
Chicago Grain Inc. – Runner Phone Clerk
Produce Grain – Phone Clerk
Correctional Alternative Center – Counselor for Inmates
Wilkinson and Lester CPA’s – Staff Accountant
Virginia Credit Union League – Auditor
University of Virginia – Accounting
Ferrum – A.A
C&D Commodities – Clerk Floor Manager
John Marshall Law School – Law
Miami University (Ohio) – Economics
Loyola University (Rome)
Clayton Brokerage – Account Executive
E.F. Hutton & Co. Account Executive
Self Employed – Music Teacher
Paul Bamberg – Physics Teacher
Susan Kaplan – Teacher of prep. Courses
Don Mills – Kitchen Worker
U.C.L.A Medical School – Medicine
Harvard University – Science
New England Conservatory of Music – Piano/Music Theory
Hull Trading Co.- Computer Programmer
American College of Switzerland – Natural Science
De Anza College – No major
Once more we hear that Greece needs more money or it will fail. If you are like me, you are getting tired of hearing that story too. I really do not listen to that stuff when it comes to making my investment decisions. And I really feel sorry for the investors who do make their decisions based on what they hear and read.
…it appears the Fed is saying it won’t raise rates until 2015, since its statement said it was holding rates low through 2014.
Translation:
“F*** yeah we are gonna keep rates at 0 through 2014…staying there until we at least create another damn bubble! You f***ing sheep get long and start buying Miami condos again!”
Sure it is. And just as we saw in 1933, 1934 and 1935, the economy and the stock market can experience a brief cyclical recovery, especially given all the massive monetary intervention by the central banks, but the fragility and vulnerability never go away, and neither does the hardship for many. Yes, yes, the stock market has doubled off the March 2009 lows. Yet, since that time, more than 11 million Americans have joined the food stamp program, including 4.4 million in 2011 alone. That may not fit into your definition of depression, but it does for these folks, I am sure.
The labour force has contracted by over 800,000 since the recession ended — this too is unprecedented. Assuming that the 200,000 payroll gain in December was the real deal, it would take 30 more of these to get employment back to where it was when the recession began four years ago. Real per capita personal disposable income in the U.S. has not grown for six years — despite trillions of dollars of government stimulus. If that’s not a ‘depression’ outcome, then please come forward with your definition.
If you exclude the mountain of government social benefits, real income on a per person basis has rolled all its way back to where it was in 2001! Interest rates have been 0% for over three years and governments around the world have blown their fiscal finances out of the water in order to save insolvent banks and save economic activity from implosion. In fact, as a result, there has been such a radical decline in creditworthiness coming out of the Great Recession, that the pool of sovereign bonds that have unblemished AAA ratings has plunged to $4.5 trillion from $16.9 trillion (see page C12 of last Thursday’s WSJ). That is a 73% nosedive and a reminder for investors that in the name of owning “scarcity”, high-quality paper is noteworthy for its dwindling supply.
Don’t bet only off Rosenberg’s words as you try to make money in the markets. However, bet off his words, with sound strategy thought out in advance that doesn’t require you to parse mountains of fundamental data, because how else are you going to produce profit in the climate he describes? Do I think trend following is a wise to bet for the chaos he describes? Yes, I do. And if you want to call me nonstop redundant–go for it–but I am not stopping.
“I confess, I think about the future. So do my colleagues. If someone who’s spent decades investing doesn’t have an opinion about what lies ahead, there’s something wrong. I believe our clients want us to apply the benefit of our experience in gauging and reacting to the opportunities and risks that lie ahead.
But I have a mantra on this subject, too: “It’s one thing to have an opinion; it’s something very different to assume it’s right and act on that assumption.” We have views on the future. And they can cause us to “lean” toward offense or defense. Just never so much that for the results to be good, our views have to be right.”
–Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital Management January 10, 2012
Marks is not a technical trend follower, but wise words about not worrying about being right.
The Dead saw it too:
Drivin’ that train
High on cocaine
Casey Jones you better
watch your speed
Trouble ahead
Trouble behind
and you know that notion
just crossed my mind
Trouble with you is
The trouble with me
Got two good eyes
but we still don’t see
Come round the bend
You know it’s the end
The fireman screams and
The engine just gleams
Now the message is similar, except that all of the worries over European debt problems have pushed T-Bond prices up even higher toward “expensive” territory. And now with a deal reportedly getting worked out between Greece and its creditors over the size of the “haircut”, traders are concluding that the supposed safety of T-Bonds does not merit as much premium as it used to.
At the same time, commercial traders of both T-Bond and T-Note futures are getting to a point of being net short in the biggest way that they have been in years. Commitment Of Traders (COT) Report data is something that I address every Friday in the Daily Edition. And commercial traders are also net long the euro in the biggest way in the history of that future contract. So the big smart-money traders are betting on a euro rebound and a T-Bond selloff.
The world is a complicated place. Reality is dense with patterns, but these patterns are often subtle and inconsistent. We think we understand how things work — X always causes Y — but then Z happens. It’s very confusing.
Trend following doesn’t try to understand. It doesn’t care. The article from Wired is not about investing you say? You miss the point.
In Houston today addressing a group of investors. Good group. Skeptical and challenging–just the way it should be! Cool point? At least 3 hands went up of people who had been to Canadian, Texas. Canadian is not a pass through place…you have to be going there!
In lieu of another asset bubble, maybe the nation ought to collectively lower its expectations about the labor market rather than harping about the unemployment rate all that time.
More:
But, now it seems pretty clear that we’ve run out of bubbles and maybe we should get used to the idea that the jobless rate will be high for a long time to come (think Europe) and that many of those eight million “lost” jobs were like that mid-2000s housing wealth — fleeting.
More:
These jobs weren’t “lost”, in the sense that they’ll somehow be found again, that is, unless Ben Bernanke inflates another asset bubble.
I agree that we are heading to 1370+. However we are very close to a correction of 5% or more to finally launch that last run. Being long here for the 70+ points is not bad in the long run but for ST you could be looking at a significant draw downs. This to me is analog to 2010 so I will play it accordingly.
No fight with whoever penned that. No gripe. No hate. Just a big head scratcher from me that so many think like this. James Brown had it figured out a long time ago–at least the part about talking loud and saying nothing.
