Ep. 296: Ewan Kirk Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Synopsis: Michael Covel interviews Ewan Kirk on today’s podcast. Kirk is the head of Cantab Capital and has brought his firm from $30M AUM in 2006 to over $5B today. Kirk employs several strategies but clearly uses a trend following foundation. Covel and Kirk discuss how consistent and predictable profits are the Holy Grail–you’re never going to get there. Covel and Kirk also explore Kirk’s background, and how someone with a PhD in mathematical physics ends up going to work for Goldman Sachs; why computer programming is “today’s literacy”; standing out from the crowd; trend following in the European scene vs. America; weighting positions based on risk; talking to clients and explaining that losses are statistically inevitable; whether the demand for discretionary traders is waning; how discretionary traders look at a trader like Kirk who is 100% systematic; why discretionary intervention in a systematic trading strategy disqualifies it from being truly systematic; proving a strategy as broken rather than proving that it’s right; why randomness is everything; uncertainty and convictions about technique; capturing the realism of the world in your trading strategy; what actually benefits the economy, society, and the world; seeking client feedback and understanding a client’s drivers; and the importance of consistent marginal improvements. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

ewan kirk

Posted in Trend Following

Trading Food For Thought

Random:

Enjoy.

Posted in Trend Following

Ep. 295: Gerd Gigerenzer & Brian Wansink Interviews with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Synopsis: Michael Covel interviews both Gerd Gigerenzer and Brian Wansink on today’s podcast. Gigerenzer joins Covel for his second appearance on the podcast. He is currently director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC) at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development and director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy. Gigerenzer’s new book is Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions. Covel and Gigerenzer discuss the differences between Daniel Kahneman and Gigerenzer’s views; heuristics vs. statistics; the notion of medical check-ups, prostate cancer, and the PSA test; taking risks, and instincts vs. expert advice; relative vs. absolute risk; Benjamin Franklin’s ledger, heuristics, and romance; intuition, facts, unconscious intelligence, and gut decisions; being risk savvy and ordering in upscale restaurants, why Risk Savvy is an alternative to many other outlooks; the two tools to being risk savvy; the gaze heuristic and athletics; complex problems and simple heuristics. Next, Covel speaks with Brian Wansink. Wansink is the John Dyson Professor of Marketing and the Director of the Cornell Food and Brand Lab in the Department of Applied Economics and Management at Cornell University. His newest book is Slim By Design. Covel and Wansink discuss weight and obesity; our genes and environment as an effect on our health; “doing what skinny people do” and studying buffets; modeling the behavior of slim people; the advantages of chopsticks; the power of the grocery shopper of the household; triggers and tips to avoid unhealthy behavior that happens in restaurants; correlations between where you sit in a restaurant and eating choices; the three types of people in the context of nutrition; the influence of the environment on our eating habits; being slim by design vs. being slim by willpower; pursuing happiness vs. pursuing a purpose. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

gigerenzer
Gerd Gigerenzer

wansink
Brian Wansink

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Posted in Interviews, Multimedia, Podcasts, Trading 101, Trend Following

Study the Errors of Those Before You

“Science is the systematic classification of experience.”
George Henry Lewes

“It is necessary for you to learn from others’ mistakes. You will not live long enough to make them all yourself.”

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Posted in Psychology, Trading 101, Trend Following

Feedback Always Welcome… Especially When It’s Good!

Feedback in:

Mike, I picked up your podcast [feed] a month ago or so and have really been enjoying the content. I have since ordered a couple of your books and look forward to reading them. Thank you for sharing your thoughts & creating a platform for such objective, honest, and critical thinking across a broad range of topics. I ran across a book that you might find interesting by Jordan Ellenberg, “How to Not Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking”. If you have read it, I would be interested in your thoughts or reflections. If not, I hope you get the chance to read it.

Thank you again for sharing!
[Name]

Have not seen it. Will take a look! Thanks for the nice words.

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Posted in Feedback, Trend Following

Ep. 294: Nigol Koulajian & Donald Wieczorek Interviews with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Synopsis: Michael Covel speaks with Nigol Koulajian and Donald Wieczorek on today’s podcast–two separate interviews back to back. Nigol Koulajian’s firm is Quest Partners, LLC and is approaching one billion AUM. Koulajian has a very interesting take on trend following–specifically his take on replicating famous trend following strategies. Koulajian and Covel discuss Koulajian’s background and entrepreneurism within Lebanese culture; how Koulajian got his start, and how he found his way into the systematic strategies he employs today; the influence of Van Tharp; the importance of practices like transcendental meditation and yoga on the mental side of trading and in the context of Koulajian’s work today as a fund manager. the S&P 500 as a trading system; crowd psychology; replication strategies; price action as a trigger for different strategies; volatility, volatility compression, and why volatility is not the way to measure risk in the markets anymore; the Flash Crash; and trend following as a hedge to equity risk. Next, Michael Covel speaks with Donald Wieczorek. Wieczorek’s firm is Purple Valley Capital. Covel and Wieczorek discuss Wieczorek’s early track record; Salem Abraham; drawdowns; Wieczorek’s first exposure to trend following; why losing early in your trading career can be a good thing; why you don’t need to predict market movement to make money; Jack Schwager and the Market Wizards series; and why systematic trading is more than just the technical system. Next, Covel and Wieczorek break apart some of Wieczorek’s monthly performance windows (trendfollowing.com/don.pdf), picking apart the psychology and context of certain months in Wieczorek’s career. Covel and Wieczorek continue on to talk about correlation between famous trend following traders; volatility and risk; and the value of crisis alpha. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Nigol Koulajian
Nigol Koulajian

Don Wieczorek
Donald Wieczorek

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Posted in Interviews, Multimedia, Podcasts, Trading 101, Trend Following

Manage Your Risk and Cut Your Losses

Interesting reads:

Thanks Mike Shell.

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Posted in Psychology, Risk Management, Trading 101, Trend Following

Trading Food For Thought

Reading in:

Enjoy.

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Posted in Economics, Psychology, Trading 101, Trend Following

Ep. 293: The State Episode with Doug Casey and Charles Hugh Smith with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Synopsis: Michael Covel presents “The State Episode” featuring interviews with Doug Casey and Charles Hugh Smith. State power and central planning are two of the topics on today’s show, and both guests love taking a stab at the state. First, Michael Covel speaks with Doug Casey. Casey is the founder and chairman of Casey Research, a provider of paid subscription newsletter services espousing libertarian viewpoints as the justification for the purchase of highly speculative microcap stocks, precious metals, and other investments. Casey and Covel discuss what it’s like having traveled to over 175 countries and where one can find social and economic liberty today in this world; the advantages of being a perpetual tourist; why Casey describes himself as an anarchist; if whether there is a purpose anymore to voting in the United States of America; loyalty to the country where you were born; those who rule out the possibility of a financial panic in the future; quantitative easing and currency debasement; and what was the trigger for Casey’s turn at life as a global traveler. Next, Michael Covel speaks with Charles Hugh Smith. Smith is an American writer and blogger. He is the chief writer for the site “Of Two Minds”. Started in 2005, this site has been listed No. 7 in CNBC’s top alternative financial sites. Smith’s economic works stress the value and efficacy of decentralizing power and wealth, the individual’s power of self-determination and the value of community, which in his view has been diminished by the state. Smith and Covel discuss how winners and are being selected by the state as exemplified by the 2008 financial crisis; alliances between corporations and the state; why there might be an uproar if equity markets were not at all-time highs; what happens when the typical wage earner can no longer substitute debt for earned income; stagnant wages and tradable labor; building your life around non state controlled opportunities; the decentralization of power and wealth; and the reliance on secrecy in politics to avoid accountability. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Charles Hugh Smith

Note: These episodes play by clicking “listen”. You may also want to “save as” each file to your device. All episodes on iTunes too.

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Posted in Economics, Interviews, Multimedia, Podcasts

What’s Your Ultimate Elixir?

Feedback in:

Seems like you’re [Michael Covel] well beyond flow, rather, overflowing, with life’s ultimate elixir…deep unbridled enthusiasm and sheer joy for all things [in the Covel] world. Least that what you sounded like throughout Kotler podcast. Yes. great book, isn’t it?

[Name]

Thanks!

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Posted in Feedback, Trend Following
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