This could end up being very plausible, but does that mean we have to follow him forever? What if he dies?
He does use “maybe”.
This could end up being very plausible, but does that mean we have to follow him forever? What if he dies?
He does use “maybe”.
I was just speaking with a Brazilian reporter who called me from São Paulo. He said, “But isn’t trend following hard?” An interesting question!
1. I would think watching the Dow bounce around 10,000 for 11 years as a buy and holder (hoper) is harder.
2. What ambitious achievements in life are not hard?
One reader comments:
Pain is in your brain. I’m not sure if anyone is quoted as saying this, but this is the motto I live by. Yes it is tough to choke down boring healthy food in order to maintain a lean physique. But these foods do not stress your body. They stress your brain…especially if you maintain massive urges to eat junk. BUT the good news is that if you do it long enough, your pain tolerance increases and eventually dissolves. I do not believe accomplishing things are “hard.” I believe the majority makes tasks as hard as possible in order to invent an excuse to quit (Self-fulfilling prophesy 101). What is “hard” about laying off the high strike, eating healthy and/or buying high and selling low? I mean, you know what works so is your mental toughness that weak to point where you cannot follow the rules? I think mental toughness is where trend-follower’s ultimate edge really lies. Thoughts?
Thanks to Ritholtz for the interesting chart of the morning. Proof positive that the world has changed big time. Name one event that could lead to massive new private sector job creation? The only thing I can think of is time travel. No joke. Something truly revolutionary. On the other hand, I love Apple products, LED TVs, and all the newest gismos, but those things are not enough! Are we to the point that everyone should not mindlessly march off to college? Let’s face it if there are no new jobs for 22-year graduates, then why waste four years of time and take on a massive student loan debt? If I was 18 today I would sit in my parent’s house and stare at the screen until I figured out a way to make money and rely on myself. And if you are 18, and your parents start telling you about how it was during their day, have them call me. I will set them straight.
What about stocks? No “long only” stock market help is coming. Look at how many times we have crossed over 10,000 in the last decade. 10,000 means zilch. I tried to say that here.

Shout out to Thomas Stridsman for sending me this Time article. An excerpt:
You can learn a lot about gambling if you’re willing to analyze 27 million hands of online poker. Don’t have time for that? No worries; sociology doctoral student Kyle Siler of Cornell University has done it for you. His counterintuitive message: the more hands you win, the more money you’re likely to lose — and this has implications that go well beyond a hand of cards. Siler, whose work was published in December in the online edition of the Journal of Gambling Studies and will appear later this year in the print edition, was not interested in poker alone but in the larger idea of how humans handle risk, reward and variable payoffs. Few things offer a better way of quantifying that than gambling — and few gambling dens offer a richer pool of data than the Internet, where millions of people can play at once and transactions are easy to observe and record.
Trend following anyone? Exactly the connections I make in my film Broke with top poker players and traders.
An excerpt from my book The Complete TurtleTrader:
Taking very little at face value is my modus operandi. In fact, since childhood I’ve challenged the accepted norms regarding access to the truth. Along the way I’ve challenged a number of people who have wanted to keep the curtains closed. In this small world, one of the more unlikely people to have asked me, “How do you go about unearthing details?” was Mikhail Gorbachev.
The former president had been told in Russian that I write about men who trade big money, so when we were introduced he asked me in Russian, “What is it like to write about these men?” Realizing his time was limited, I kept it short: “Very interesting.” He waited for the translation. “It must be difficult to get behind the scenes; how do you do it?” I smiled, “Oh, I am very good at digging.” He laughed. No translation needed there. He understood my English perfectly.
Walking into the world of Turtles was not planned. It was an unconventional journey. Spring 1994 was the “get your act together, now is the time” year for me. I had just finished an MBA at Florida State, having spent my final semester in London studying international relations.
Back in the States, armed with the so-called prerequisite advanced degree and a deep desire to become rich, Wall Street called. Unfortunately, Virginia, my home state, was not the place to start looking for a mentor or an opportunity that would lead to big money. Most of my friends were products of government workers, not the types looking beyond security or “fitting in.”
So, I tracked down one of the few Florida State alums on Wall Street, recently retired James Massey. He had made millions at Salomon Brothers and was memorably portrayed in Michael Lewis’s classic Liar’s Poker:
[Jim] Massey…was John Gutfreund’s (the then CEO) hatchet man, an American corporate Odd Job. It didn’t require a triple jump of the imagination to picture him decapitating insolent trainees with a razor-edged bowler hat. He had what some people might consider an image problem: he never smiled…Trainees feared Massey. He seemed to prefer it that way.”
At lunch, Massey did not say a word. After a half hour the conversation was speeding downhill. Astute enough to see my sink or swim predicament, I said [bluntly]: “Have I said anything so far that makes you think I am full of shit?”
That got his attention. “Yes, you said you wanted to be the best. You don’t want to be the best; you just want to win.” Massey, like any good coach, was offering the reminder that winners play harder than anyone else.
As fate would have it, I didn’t get hired at Salomon Brothers, but right after meeting Massey, the word ‘Turtle’ crossed my desk for the first time. Shortly thereafter, in 1996, long before YouTube.com, Google, and millions of blogs, I was there at the start of TurtleTrader.com — a controversial website designed to teach trend following and Turtle trading. It ended up becoming one of the most popular financial websites in the world and was ultimately the start of this book.
One of my goals has always been to make people think twice. That attitude has made me a target, but I was a baseball catcher so I am used to taking the shots. I often face intense reactions because I represent the other side that’s never considered. Ten years of digging and reporting have produced my fair share of critics, some legit, some off the wall. I am a messenger and people love to shoot messengers.
At the end of the day, this was not the career direction I’d originally planned as a freshly minted graduate. However, sitting at the nexus of access and insight from some of the best trading minds on the planet has become my singular passion — for now.
Feedback in:
I just finished The Complete TurtleTrader and it was great. Being a professional trader myself and having trained traders and managed portfolios, it was a great reflection on what I have been doing. In fact, it helped answer a lot of questions about psychology and what worked in other markets in making managed futures successful. Could not stop once I picked up the book. More than the system itself it was the rest of the book that was insightful. Rohit S.
A well-crafted excerpt from analyst Bert Dohmen caught my eye:
[Today] At the low, the DJI was down just about 300 points. Yet, the guests on financial TV continue to hype stocks, based on fundamentals. These are that orders of a certain company are good, that their widgets are great, and that China will power the world economies. How simplistic and stupid. Stock prices always diverge from fundamentals at important turns. Fundamentals show history. They show would companies did. But stock prices are more a function of the willingness of money to flow into stocks, or out of them. And that depends on many other factors, such as danger of banking crises, debt defaults, and now the potential of sovereign debt defaults. All of these dry up investment money. It changes the supply/demand equation. While supply increases greatly, the demand for stocks shrinks abruptly. Result: plunging stock prices.
Whether he meant it or not (I am not sure), it is useful analysis that all information is reflected in the “price”…so trade that.