2004 « April « Michael Covel: Trend Following Manifesto

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Archive for April, 2004

Amazon Sales Rank

Posted in Book News | Comments Off | Friday, April 30th, 2004

Trend Following has had an exceptional sales rank at Amazon.com for the last 2 weeks. Everyone involved with the Trend Following book project appreciates the strong interest.

Trend Following Book Update

Posted in Book News | Comments Off | Friday, April 30th, 2004

Trend Following books should be available at Amazon.com and other online retailers any day. They should be available in bookstores the first week in May. The publisher Financial Times Prentice Hall started the second printing today.

Results with No Risk?

Posted in Risk Management | Comments Off | Thursday, April 29th, 2004

It seems everyone wants the results, but not the risk. However, we all know it doesn’t really work that way (even if we refuse to admit it). David Harding, Managing Director of Winton Capital Management, put it in perspective in a January 2004 interview:

“…hedge fund management in general, is not a traditional asset management business

P. J. O’Rourke Sarcasm

Posted in Trading 101 | Comments Off | Wednesday, April 28th, 2004

“You’re into derivatives whether you like it or not. Your adjustable rate mortgage is a derivative. You got a deal on a loan that was cheaper at any time than a fixed-rate mortgage. In return you’re taking a risk. Your risk is that the amount of interest you’ll pay in the future will be decided from a formula involving the prime rate, T-bills, and the chairman of Chase Manhattan’s boxer shorts waistband size. In this case, the underlying commodity is banker fat.”
P. J. O’Rourke

Trend Followers’ Update

Posted in Trend Following | Comments Off | Tuesday, April 27th, 2004

2004 performance update.

Where Do Trends Come From?

Posted in Economics | Comments Off | Monday, April 26th, 2004

Where do trends come from? Isn’t the market efficient? Trends often spring from inconsistent government actions. Whether the United States Federal Reserve or regulated beer sales in Norway — governments never get it right.

100-Year Floods Happen All the Time

Posted in Statistical Thinking | Comments Off | Sunday, April 25th, 2004

We have all heard the term “100-year flood” applied to the markets. The Long Term Capital Managements of the world predicated their trading on the flood happening only once every 100 years. Reality is quite different as Hunt Taylor reminds:

“I’m wondering when statisticians are going to figure out that the statistical probability of improbable losses are absolutely the worst predictors of the regularity with which they’ll occur. I mean, the single worst descriptor of negative events is the hundred-year flood. Am I wrong? How many hundred-year floods have we lived through in this room? Statistically maybe we should have lived through one and we lived through seven now at this point.”
Hunt Taylor
Director of Investments, Stern Investment Holdings

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Market Wizard Interviews by Michael Covel

Jim Rogers on the Fed con.
Market Wizard Larry Hite discusses dating odds.
Poker pro Howard Lederer on poker & trading the markets.
Trader Salem Abraham talks about the unexpected.

"Over the last 15 years, through non-stop trading systems research and interviews with great traders, I have assembled the most unique trend following education available. My access to top traders has enabled me to teach trading rules found nowhere else and I pass those lessons along to students. My unique educational courses, which include proprietary trading systems, are designed to do one thing: give you the chance to make the big money."
Michael W. Covel, TurtleTrader® President, Trend Following & Turtle Trading Expert

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Marylebone Holdings, LTD. (d.b.a TurtleTrader®, TurtleTrader.com® & Trend Following℠) provides analytical tools, research and trading systems. Company programs are for trend following trading training and educational purposes only. Testimonials included may not represent typical results. Neither unique experiences, past performances, historical tests, nor included or accessible strategies constitute recommendations or guarantee future results. Users are solely responsible for selection of stocks, currencies, options, commodities, futures contracts, strategies, and monitoring their brokerage accounts. The Company, its subsidiaries, employees, and agents do not solicit or execute trades or give investment advice, and are not registered as brokers or advisors with any federal or state agency. For more information about commodities and futures trading, please see the Commodities Futures Trading Commissions web site at www.cftc.gov. Trading in forex, stocks, futures and options is speculative in nature and not appropriate for all investors. Investors should only use risk capital that they are prepared to lose when trading forex, stocks, futures, and options because there is always the risk of substantial loss. Clients should fully examine their own personal financial situation before trading. The names and logos for TurtleTrader®, TurtleTrader.com® & Trend Following℠ are registered trademarks of Marylebone Holdings, Ltd. (d.b.a TurtleTrader®). All names and logos are ® trademarks of TurtleTrader®. All content copyright ©1996-2010 TurtleTrader®. All rights reserved.

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No college degree will guarantee you market success.

Michael Covel in the Press