Trend Following has had an exceptional sales rank at Amazon.com for the last 2 weeks. Everyone involved with the Trend Following book project appreciates the strong interest.
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Archive for April, 2004
Trend Following Book Update
Trend Following books should be available at Amazon.com and other online retailers any day. They should be available in bookstores the first week in May. The publisher Financial Times Prentice Hall started the second printing today.
Results with No Risk?
It seems everyone wants the results, but not the risk. However, we all know it doesn’t really work that way (even if we refuse to admit it). David Harding, Managing Director of Winton Capital Management, put it in perspective in a January 2004 interview:
“…hedge fund management in general, is not a traditional asset management business
P. J. O’Rourke Sarcasm
“You’re into derivatives whether you like it or not. Your adjustable rate mortgage is a derivative. You got a deal on a loan that was cheaper at any time than a fixed-rate mortgage. In return you’re taking a risk. Your risk is that the amount of interest you’ll pay in the future will be decided from a formula involving the prime rate, T-bills, and the chairman of Chase Manhattan’s boxer shorts waistband size. In this case, the underlying commodity is banker fat.”
P. J. O’Rourke
Where Do Trends Come From?
Where do trends come from? Isn’t the market efficient? Trends often spring from inconsistent government actions. Whether the United States Federal Reserve or regulated beer sales in Norway — governments never get it right.
100-Year Floods Happen All the Time
We have all heard the term “100-year flood” applied to the markets. The Long Term Capital Managements of the world predicated their trading on the flood happening only once every 100 years. Reality is quite different as Hunt Taylor reminds:
“I’m wondering when statisticians are going to figure out that the statistical probability of improbable losses are absolutely the worst predictors of the regularity with which they’ll occur. I mean, the single worst descriptor of negative events is the hundred-year flood. Am I wrong? How many hundred-year floods have we lived through in this room? Statistically maybe we should have lived through one and we lived through seven now at this point.”
Hunt Taylor
Director of Investments, Stern Investment Holdings
Trend Following Publish Date
Today April 24, 2004 is the publish/release date for Trend Following. Keep in mind, there will be some discrepancies in distribution. Online retailers will typically have the book in stock first, followed by regular stores. I recommend Amazon as probably the easiest way to obtain the book, but others may have it sooner or later.
