https://www.ipo.google.com is not the kind of opportunity Trend Followers pursue. This is more akin to gambling than trading. The dot-com bubble mentality sure is dying slowly!

Read the following excerpt from Investors Business Daily:

“You hear it so much, it’s almost become the naysayer’s mantra: “You can’t time the market.” Short and punchy? Sure. And also completely false. The market’s price-and-volume action gives clear signs of the market’s direction. A follow-through day gives you the biggest of head starts — timing the market’s bottom. A follow-through occurs at the earliest stages of a fledgling rally. After a significant market correction, the market will look to regain its footing. Any up day then counts as Day 1 of an attempted rally. The next two sessions, Days 2 and 3, don’t need to show much in the way of gains. As long as they don’t undercut Day 1′s low, the rally remains intact. For a follow-through to occur, you want it to land between Day 4 and Day 7 of the attempted rally. On any one of those days, you’re looking for one or more of the major indexes — the Nasdaq, S&P 500 or Dow — to rise 1.7% or more in higher volume than the previous day.”
Jonah Keri, Investor’s Business Daily
All Major Bull Rallies Begin With A Follow-Through Day
Tuesday July 27, 7:00 pm ET

You will never hear a trend follower speak like this. If someone tells you he can “time the bottom”, reach and check to see if you still have your wallet.

The Economist: An eerie calm
Jul 22nd 2004

The fact that implied

He may not be a trend follower, but his words ring true:

My prediction on the market? Well, I’m with the folks who compare prognostications to passing clouds. If you look long enough, they say, you will begin to see images in their randomness. In other words, no one knows, let alone me.”
Steve McLinden
Bankrate.com

Translations for the book Trend Following into Russian, Korean & Arabic are on the horizon. Negotiations are underway.

An excerpt from the “news” today:

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The technology-dominated Nasdaq Composite Index (NasdaqSC:^IXIC – News), which had rallied on Tuesday, fell more than 2 percent, recording its biggest one-day percentage loss in more than 4 months and its lowest close in nine months…”The problem is that so many people are expecting that technology performance can’t go up from here,” said Brian Pears, head of equity trading at Victory Capital Management.

Actually, there is no problem. The market will do what the market will do. The problem is with Mr. Pears. He is trying to predict, rationalize, justify, etc. the market’s movements. Why not instead just follow market movement without trying to explain the market?

Trend Following has now cracked the top 100 of all books sold through Amazon.ca.

“I think the best traders…are very committed, very willing to recognise when they have made a mistake, know when to get out and recognise when they are succeeding,” Kiev told The Age. “(They have) dedication, focus, commitment, a willingness to review what they have done, to correct errors, to keep improving their performance, to stay engaged.”
Ari Kiev

Ari Kiev

The Trend Following book has already signed to publish a Japanese translation. We hope to announce a Chinese translation soon as negotiations are under way.

The markets sure are producing many opinions!

“Michael Covel’s Trend Following: Essential.”
Ed Seykota
Trend Follower for 35 years, Incline Village, NV
The Trading Tribe
Ed was originally profiled in The Market Wizards by Jack Schwager

Ed Seykota

“Covel has created a very rare thing – a well-documented and thoroughly researched book on trend following that is also well-written and easy to read. It touches on a wide variety of the principles and practices which make for successful trend following. This is one book that traders at all levels will find of real value.”
John Mauldin
Millennium Wave Investments, Arlington, TX
Author of Bull’s Eye Investing and editor of Thoughts from the Frontline

“I think the book did a superb job of covering the philosophy and thinking behind trend following (basically why it works). You might call it the Market Wizards of Trend Following.”
Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.
Author of Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom
President, International Institute of Trading Mastery, Inc.
Van was originally profiled in The Market Wizards by Jack Schwager

Van Tharp

“I think that this book documents a great deal of what has made Trend Following Managers a successful part of the money management landscape (how they manage risk and investment psychology). It serves as a strong educational justification on why investors should consider using Trend Following Managers as a part of an overall portfolio strategy.”
Tom Basso
Retired CEO, Trendstat Capital Management, Inc., Scottsdale, AZ
Tom was originally profiled in The New Market Wizards by Jack Schwager

“Michael Covel has written the definitive book on trend following. With careful research and clear insight he has captured the essence of the most successful of all trading strategies. Michael knows his subject matter and he writes about it with passion, conviction and enthusiasm. This enjoyable and well written book is destined to become a classic.”
Charles LeBeau, Rolling Hills Esatates, CA
Co-author of Technical Traders Guide to Computer Analysis of the Futures Markets

Chuck LeBeau

“Michael Covel mixes a unique blend of trend following matters with the thoughts and quotes of successful traders, investors and society’s leaders. This is a valuable contribution and some of the best writing on trend following I’ve seen.”
Robert (Bucky) Isaacson, Woodside, CA
Managed Money and Trend Following Pioneer for 30+ Years
More on Isaacson

“Michael Covel’s Trend Following is a breakthrough book that captures the essence of what really makes markets tick. Diligently researched and comprehensive in scope, it will replace Market Wizards as the must-read bible for a new generation of traders.”
Jonathan Hoenig
Portfolio Manager, Capitalistpig Hedge Fund LLC, Chicago, IL
Fox News Contributor

Jonathan Hoenig

“Trend Following: Definitely required reading for the aspiring trader.”
David S. Druz
Tactical Investment Management
Trend Follower for 25 years, Haleiwa, HI

“Michael Covel reveals the real secret about trading – that there is no secret. His points are peppered with wisdom from experts across the industry.”
John Ehlers
President, MESA Software

“Trend Following by Michael Covel? I’m long this book.”
Bob Spear, Annapolis, MD
Developer of Trading Recipes Software

“Trend Following is an engrossing and educational journey through the principles, pitfalls, players and psychology of aggressive technical trading of the investment markets. Rich in its wisdom and historical study.”
Gerald Appel
President, Signalert Corporation

“Those who seek shall find, and once they find they will be disturbed, when they are disturbed they will marvel and reign over all. This was written 2000 years ago by St. Thomas and still holds true today. If you do not focus on your own path to discovery you will not succeed as a trader. Michael Covel’s book certainly places you on the correct path and focuses in the right direction. A fair wind to all that sail those pages.”
Arthur Maddock, Naxos, Greece
President, Portara Capital Offshore

Risk: what exactly is it? Ponder wisdom:

“Since we live in a world without crystal balls that allow us to clearly see the future, prudent investing is all about the management of risk and expected returns. A problem that both investors and investment advisors face is defining what exactly is risk. As you will see, risk can be many different things And since risk can be many different things to different people, investors/advisors are faced with deciding which risks are the most important to manage…Another risk that should be carefully considered is that of the unexpected negative surprise. Unfortunately, one of the most common and severe mistakes made by investors/advisors is to treat both the highly unlikely as impossible and the highly likely as certain. Prudent investors know that history teaches us that just because something has not yet occurred, does not mean that it cannot, or will not, occur in the future. One has to look no further than to the events of September 11, 2001 for proof of this important point. The potential for negative surprises should be built into any investment plan. Forewarned is forearmed. There is yet another risk investors/advisors must deal with-maverick risk. As Robert Arnott points out, “practitioners ‘know’ that the greatest peril is the risk of being wrong and alone. As such, we fall prey to the Keynesian dictum that it is more acceptable to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally. Decisions that leave an investor alone carry the inherent risk of being both wrong and alone. If an investor is wrong and alone, a strong likelihood is that the assets’ owner will not have the patience to see the investment decision through. The decision, even if correct in the long run, will be reversed before it can succeed.” We are all familiar with the expression “misery loves company.” Experiencing relatively low (but still positive) investment results may create more psychological risks to the investment plan being abandoned than experiencing losses if everyone around is having a similar experience.”
Paul Petillo