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Trend Commandments

Michael Covel (FT Press)

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The Little Book of Trading

Michael Covel (Wiley)

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The Complete TurtleTrader

Michael Covel (Collins)

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Trend Following

Michael Covel (FT Press)

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Broke (Film DVD)

Michael Covel

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Archive for October, 2004

Do It

“Just do what you do best.”
Red Auerbach

Red’s bio can be found here.

Hot Hands

The relevance to trading is clear. The relevance to any probabilistic field is clear. Understand the Hot Hand in Sports.

Michael Panzner Endorsement

“At a time when the conventional wisdom is often wrong and many traditional indicators have lost their relevance, it’s good to know there is resource out there that traders can depend on. With its timeless wisdom and valuable insights on making money, Michael Covel’s Trend Following is definitely your friend.”
Michael Panzner
Author of The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle: An Insider’s Guide to Successful Investing in a Changing World

French Translation Deal Signed

A deal to translate the book Trend Following into French has been signed.

Legg Mason Follow-up

The former Chief Market Strategist at Legg Mason offered a review of Trend Following recently. In a follow-up document he stated:

“Trend Following, by Michael Covel, is a new book gaining popularity among investors. The book is challenging to the methods of conventional portfolio strategy. We point out the similarities in the approach of trend following and the PPS model.”

Download Legg Mason Report on Trend Following and their PPS Model.

Request for Insight

I spoke before a group of fundamental-based analysts and money managers at a major investment bank recently. While almost entirely fundamentally driven in their daily actions, this group was eager to see into the “trend following mindset”. As Wall Street moves forward and continues to distance itself from the dot-com bubble, those willing to entertain new ideas and questions old assumptions will br the winners.

From my perspective there are many problems with fundamental analysis. Edwards and Magee argue the cons to such analysis:

“Of course the statistics, which the fundamentalists study, play a part in the supply-demand equation – that is freely admitted. But there are many other factors affecting it. The market price reflects not only the differing value opinions of many orthodox security appraisers but also all the hopes and fears and guesses and moods, rational and irrational, of hundreds of potential buyers and sellers, as well as their needs and their resources – in total, factors which defy analysis and for which no statistics are obtainable, but which are nevertheless all synthesized, weighed and finally expressed in the one precise figure at which a buyer and a seller get together and make a deal

Terror Futures

Granted, this was debated some last summer, but this article on “terror futures” is still great food for thought. Download PDF here.

HedgeStreet Articles

Two articles discussing the new exchange HedgeStreet.com:

Article 1

Article 2

Some other innovative exchanges include:

OneChicago

TradeSports

Of course before trading new instruments, always best to check for liquidity.

Marc Faber Endorsement

“As a contrarian investor I have been skeptical by default of trend following models. Still, after reading Michael Covel’s excellent and eye opening book about some professional traders, who with iron discipline follow market trends up and down and in the process achieve impressive capital gains, I find myself more inclined to endorse a trend following approach to investments. In fact, I wished that at times I would have had the kind of discipline the trend followers have in terms of entirely reversing their investment positions once the trend dictated such a posture. I think that Michael’s Trend Following is an outstanding read from which all investors can learn to trade markets better by limiting their risks and maximizing their profits through a more disciplined approach to investments.”
Marc Faber
Managing Director, Marc Faber Limited
Editor, Gloom, Boom & Doom Report

German Translation Deal Signed

A deal to translate the book Trend Following into German has been signed.

Book Update

Trend Following is currently the #1 book in the investing categories of 1.) stocks, 2.) futures and 3.) options at Amazon.com.

Investment Bank Death

If you are still of the mindset that your local Merrill broker is the guy to talk to about your “money”, think again. An excerpt from the NY Times:

“For years, analysts have said that Merrill, as well as Morgan Stanley, a similar stand-alone investment bank, may have to merge with a larger commercial bank. But in recent months, the hum of speculation has taken on a higher pitch. The talk comes as the two firms’ stock prices continue to lag behind those of their peers: Merrill’s is down 20 percent from its high this year, while Morgan Stanley’s is off 23 percent from its 2004 peak. That both the future and the relevance of these two storied Wall Street institutions are being questioned at all is testimony to the broad changes in the financial landscape over the last few years. The Morgan Stanley name embodies the essence of white-shoe financial wisdom, dating to the 1930′s, when the firm was carved out of the original J. P. Morgan. For its part, Merrill Lynch, as the first Wall Street firm to popularize the idea of marketing stocks and bonds to small investors, symbolizes the idea of democratized stock ownership in America. Universal banks like Citigroup and J. P. Morgan, with their swollen balance sheets and ripe ambitions, are encroaching more than ever on Merrill’s and Morgan’s turf. European banks like Barclays, Royal Bank of Scotland and HSBC are also looking to expand in the United States. Even onetime regional banks like Bank of America and Wachovia have been hiring droves of investment bankers and brokers. Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley, in other words, are being squeezed on all sides. “The business models of these firms may not be sustainable,” said Richard Barrett, who runs the Credit Suisse First Boston investment banking unit, which is responsible for bank mergers. “Inevitably, Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch should align with the big balance-sheet providers.”

Start making the transition now to running your money (or at least use a money manager) — as it appears days of chit chat with the friendly neighborhood broker may be going the way of the dinosaur. If you don’t bring value — what’s the point?

Trading Systems Courses

Books & Film

Trend Following

Trend Following Live

Extras

 

Market Wizard Interviews


  • Jim Rogers with Michael Covel in Singapore.

  • Market Wizard Larry Hite discusses odds.

  • Harry Markowitz on Jim Cramer.

  • Trader Salem Abraham about the unexpected.

  • Michael Covel: Reason TV Interview.

  • Michael Covel in Brazil for BM&FBovespa.

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