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Archive for January, 2005

In Search of the Grail

A reader writes:

“Why don’t you give customers what they want? They want to know what trend the market is right now. You tell them that and you’ll get and keep so many more customers. I write and publish a newsletter myself and each day I stick my neck on the line to say what is happening in the market and whether or not the action is healthy (safe to invest long) or unhealthy (move into cash/short).”

This is the exact same mindset that ran crazy during the dot com bubble. I thought they were all dead and buried, but they live on to fight another day! All readers here should see the huge downfall to this man’s desire.

Trend Following Interviews

Just finished a trip to London. I interviewed three notables in the industry. One trader has a 15+ year track record and now manages over $1 billion USD trading as a trend follower. Before that number seems large (and it is) keep in mind that he was a one-man business but a few years ago. Another trader is relatively new to the public world and still runs a small and lean shop. He uses only the closing price each day and competes just fine with less data. Lastly, I spoke candidly with a professor who has written extensively on the subject of trend following trading. He agrees with me that to some degree many academics will have a hard time ever acknowledging the existence of trend following as it upsets the carefully crafted “efficient markets” foundation upon which they rest their reputations.

Warren Buffett

CNBC Transcript of Jan. 19, 2005, interview with Warren Buffett:

BILL GRIFFETH: I know I’m not going to get you to tell us what you’re buying or anything, right now, but your thoughts on the stock market right now in light of what’s going on with the economy and corporate profitability, the Fed raising rates? I mean, just big picture, what’s Warren Buffet think of the U.S. stock market right now?

BUFFETT: I never try to predict the market. I’ve made money over the years by buying into good companies, run by good people, at attractive prices. And I don’t try and make it out of buying into the market at one point and selling at another point. I’m having a hard time finding things to buy, if that says anything about the market. But really — if I find something tomorrow to buy, I don’t give a thought as to whether the market is going up or down. I just barrel in.

GRIFFETH: Are you bullish, as it were, on the dollar? Do you think it goes much lower from here?

BUFFETT: I think over time that — unless we have a major change in trade policies, I don’t see how the dollar avoids going down. I don’t know when it happens, I don’t have any idea whether it will be this month or this year, or next year. But we are force-feeding dollars on to the rest of the world at the rate of close to a couple billion dollars a day, and that’s going to weigh on the dollar. I see no way around that.

GRIFFETH: I know that you have taken positions, sort of against the dollar, but do you want to look overseas more for acquisitions instead, as a result of this?

BUFFETT: Well, I certainly welcome the chance to buy businesses, or for that matter, stocks, denominated in the other currencies, or businesses that do — make their money in other currencies. But I’ve always been interested in that. But I would say that it would be a small plus to be in half a dozen other countries versus earning money in the dollar. We still have most of our money in dollars. That’s the nature of running all the businesses we do. But we’ve never — prior to 2002, I had never owned a dime’s worth of foreign currency. I mean, when I got back from a trip, I couldn’t wait to cash in my eight euros, or whatever is was that was left over. But I’ve changed my views.

Curious minds want to know when and how Buffett would reverse his opinion on the dollar. Since buying and holding currencies is not exactly a strategy, what is Buffett’s currency trading strategy?

End of Day Prices

Even with trend following trading many people still fixate on watching prices during the day. However, if you are trading as a trend follower for your own account there is no reason you can’t use end of day prices for your trading. That means you can focus on making your trading decisions off one price each day.

Japanese Version

Japanese version of Trend Following.

James Altucher on Trend Following

James Altucher wrote an article (PDF) in The Financial Times yesterday. It is worth noting that Altucher first thanks Victor Niederhoffer in his most recent book.

Complete Hype. Ug.

Here is a very sad example of complete nonsense. Traders who believe this deserve what they get.

TransTrend’s Principles

TransTrend, a Dutch-based trend follower, spells out their views on “robustness” and “systematic” trading:

“TRANSTREND considers a high degree of robustness to be essential. With regard to the design process of trading systems, this has led to three fundamental principles:

1. The same systems are used across all markets.
2. The same parameter settings are used across all markets.
3. A small variation in any parameter should not have a large impact on the results of a system.

These principles limit the risk of curve fitting and over optimization; in other words, maximize the chance that historical results can be repeated.

TRANSTREND’s trading systems are not models. They do not attempt to forecast fair values or equilibrium price levels, and they are not based on an economic theory that risks becoming out-dated. Systems are dynamic and reactive by nature, they respond to changes in a consistent way.”

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