Probability of Life
“To make a simple point, it would be impossible to take a profit (or loss for that matter) unless price trended at least a little bit. Can one know absolutely when price will trend? No….Does one have to know absolutely in order to have a profitable business? Certainly not. In fact, a great number of businesses are based on the probability that a time based series will trend. In fact, if you look at insurance, gambling, and other related businesses, you will come to the conclusion that even a small positive edge can mean great profits.”
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