Intelligence Analysis
Richards J. Heuer, Jr. wrote the free online book Psychology of Intelligence Analysis for the Center for the Study of Intelligence at the United States Central Intelligence Agency. The relevance to great trading and great traders is straightforward.
Here is the table of contents:
Author’s Preface
Foreword by Douglas MacEachin
Introduction by Jack Davis
PART I–OUR MENTAL MACHINERY
Chapter 1: Thinking About Thinking
Chapter 2: Perception: Why Can’t We See What Is There to Be Seen?
Chapter 3: Memory: How Do We Remember What We Know?
PART II–TOOLS FOR THINKING
Chapter 4: Strategies for Analytical Judgment
Chapter 5: Do You Really Need More Information?
Chapter 6: Keeping an Open Mind
Chapter 7: Structuring Analytical Problems
Chapter 8: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
PART III–COGNITIVE BIASES
Chapter 9: What Are Cognitive Biases?
Chapter 10: Biases in Evaluation of Evidence
Chapter 11: Biases in Perception of Cause and Effect
Chapter 12: Biases in Estimating Probabilities
Chapter 13: Hindsight Biases in Evaluation of Intelligence Reporting
PART IV–CONCLUSIONS
Chapter 14: Improving Intelligence Analysis
I have noticed the CIA’s web server can be iffy so be patient.
