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Mutual Funds and Trends

A question from this morning:

“Dears Sirs, I am interested in trading mutual funds in my IRA’s via trend following. In particular, I am interested in trading the Profunds group and the Rydex group of funds. Does [trend following] cover trading mutual funds? Thanks, S.M.”

Trend Following is blind to the market traded. A question though: why have you pre-selected and limited yourself to these instruments alone? One Turtle has said:

“I think another mistake we made was defining ourselves as managed futures, where we immediately limit our universe. Is our expertise in that, or is our expertise in systematic trend following, or model development. So maybe we trend follow with Chinese porcelain. Maybe we trend follow with gold and silver, or stock futures, or whatever the client needs. It’s called managed futures because that was the profit center at the FCMs. We’re trading these great systems, and testing, and making sure what we do has worked in the past. And being disciplined, and unemotional, and applying our methods to the futures markets. But limiting our trading to this one group of markets. We need to look at the investment world globally and communicate our expertise of systematic trading. You have Big Blue beating the world chess champion, and everybody saying yeah, that makes sense, I can understand that. We’ve not been able to maximize our opportunities with systematic trading. People look at systematic and computerized trading with too much skepticism. But a day will come when people will see that systematic trend following is one of the best ways to limit risk, and create a portfolio that has some reasonable expectation of making money. We’ve got to be there and ready to take advantage of the opportunity. I think we’ve miscommunicated to our clients what our expertise really is. Systematic trading is going to be better for everyone in the long run. Our methods will work on lots of different markets. The ones that are hot today, the ones that are not hot today. We don’t want to pigeon-hole ourselves as managed futures or commodities.”
Excerpts from Managed Account Reports

It’s all markets, that’s the point.

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Michael Covel is an author, director and entrepreneur who founded the internationally known website TurtleTrader® in 1996. Covel's first book was the bestselling "Trend Following" (FT Press, Apr. 04, Nov. 05, Feb. 07 & Feb. 09). His second book "The Complete TurtleTrader" (HarperCollins, Oct. 2007 & Feb. 09) is the definitive inside look at legendary trader Richard Dennis and his student traders "The Turtles". In 2009 Covel released "Broke: The New American Dream" a film documentary investigating the 2007-2009 market crisis and crash. Not afraid of a crowd or controversy, Covel is known for engaging and provocative speeches presented to audiences in Tokyo, Paris, Macau (China), Vienna (Austria), Hong Kong, Dallas, Miami and São Paulo (Brazil). He has been quoted and interviewed by likes of The Wall Street Journal, Barrons, New York Post, Globe and Mail and Bloomberg.

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