An interesting brief on happiness. An Excerpt:

“Popular writers focus on the causes of happiness, but defining and measuring it is a more basic first step for the advance of a science of happiness.”

An article from Futures Magazine dated 1986 (PDF) from Tom Willis’ web site. The article titled, “Do Trading Advisors Run Into A Dollar Trading Barrier?” shows some fears have been around for quite some time.

An excerpt from “Commodities as an Asset Class”:

“Are commodities the new El Dorado for institutional investors? There are sufficient reasons for the re-evaluation of this asset class even without the significant increase in oil prices in recent years. For institutional investors there are aspects that are much more important than short-term speculative gains, such as the interesting potential of the commodities asset class in terms of correlation, diversification and protection from inflation.”

Read paper (PDF).

A good excerpt from Yahoo Finance:

The main rule for selling is to sell what you see, not what you think. This rather difficult concept is counterintuitive, because stocks often climax and fall off the cliff even while their fundamentals, earnings history and future look spectacular. Chipmaker Marvell Technology Group (NASDAQ:MRVL) breezed past Thomson First Call consensus estimates in each of the past 13 quarters, by 2% to 11%. Earnings bounded 50% or more and sales 31% and higher in the past eight quarters. Double-digit earnings and sales growth are expected through next year. Profit margins have also been strong, while cash flow has been growing. So why is the stock 52% below its all-time high?

You don’t need to know why it is 52% off its all-time high. You just need to know that it is.

Brett Steenbarger put together a list of “common reasons why traders (and most other human beings!) fall short of being fully intentional”:

1. Environmental distractions and boredom cause a lack of focus - All of us have limits to our attention span and these are easily taxed during quiet times in the market;

2. Fatigue and mental overload create a loss of concentration - The demands of watching the screen hour after hour make it difficult to be sharp, creating fatigue effects that are well-known to pilots, car drivers, and soldiers;

3. Overconfidence follows a string of successes - It is common for traders to attribute success to skill and failure to situational, external factors. As a result, a string of even random wins can lead traders to become overconfident and veer from trading plans–especially by trading too frequently and/or trading excessive size;

4. Unwillingness to accept losses - This leads traders to alter their trade plans after trades have gone into the red, turning what were meant to be short-term trades into longer-term holds and transforming trades with small size into large trades by adding to losers;

5. Loss of confidence in one’s trading plan/strategy because it has not been adequately tested and battle-tested - It is difficult to tolerate even normal drawdowns unless you have confidence in your methods. This confidence does not come from mere positive self-talk. Rather, it is a function of testing your methods (historically and in real-time) and seeing in your own experience that they truly work;

6. Personality traits that lead to impulsivity and low frustration tolerance in stressful situations - Psychological research suggests that some individuals are more impulsive than others and less conscientious about adhering to plans and intentions. These personality traits often are accompanied by stimulation-seeking and a high degree of risk tolerance: a deadly combination.

7. Situational performance pressures - These include trading slumps and increased personal expenses that change how traders trade and lead them to place P/L ahead of making good trades. By worrying too much about how much money they make, traders can no longer follow markets with a clear head;

8. Trading positions that are excessive for the account size - This is much more common than is usually acknowledged. It creates exaggerated P/L swings and emotional reactions that interfere with cool, calm planful behavior;

9. Not having a clearly defined trading plan/strategy in the first place - Interestingly, many traders do not consider themselves to be discretionary traders, but in fact do not have a firm, explicit set of trading rules that they follow. It is difficult to be consistent with a plan (and to evaluate your consistency), if you don’t have the plan clearly laid out;

10. Trading a time frame, style, or market that does not match your talents, skills, risk tolerance, and personality - All too often, traders veer from their plans because those plans are ones that they feel they *should* follow, but that don’t truly come naturally to them. These departures from discipline are actually unconscious attempts to trade in a style that is more in tune with the trader’s skills and talents.

Source: Brett Steenbarger

Barbara Dixon, a student of famed trend follower Richard Donchian, wrote twenty years ago in Commodities magazine:

Donchian is one of the most respected technicians on Wall Street - especially in commodities. He began his career on 1930 and says he became hooked on markets when read Edwin LeFevre’s fictionalized biography of Jesse Livermore, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. His interest in technical analysis arose after he suffered some losses following the 1929 crash. This led to his discovery that only the chartists made sense and money. Donchian wrote his first market letter in 1930 at the age of 25, and Shearson’s present ‘Trend Timing’ commodity letter originated in 1960 when Donchian joined Hayden Stone. These letters have served as primers for countless commodity traders. The ‘Twenty Trading Guides’ make a fine supplement to the letters and will probably survive and prove valid for the next 44 years as well.

1. Beware of acting immediately on widespread public opinion. Even if correct, if will usually delay the move.
2. From a period of dullness and inactivity, watch for and prepare to follow a move in the direction in which volume increases.
3. LIMIT LOSSES, ride profits - irrespective of all other rules.
4. Light commitments are advisable when a market position is not certain. Clearly defined moves are signaled frequently enough to make life interesting, and concentration on these moves to the virtual exclusion of others will prevent unprofitable ‘whipsawing.’
5. Seldom take a position in the direction of an immediately preceding three-day move. Wait for one-day reversal.
6. Judicious use of stop orders is valuable aid to profitable trading. Stops may be used to protect profits, to limit losses and to take positions from certain formations such as triangular foci. Stop orders are apt to be more valuable and less treacherous if used in proper relation to the chart formation.
7. In a market in which upswings are likely to equal or exceed downswings, a heavier position should be taken for the upswings for percentage reasons - a decline from 50 to 25 will net only 50% profit, whereas an advance from 25 to 50 will net 100%.
8. In taking a position, price orders are allowable. In closing a position, use ‘market’ orders.
9. Buy strong acting, strong background commodities and sell weak ones, subject to all other rules.
10. Moves in which rails (now the Transportation Index) lead or participate strongly are usually worth following more than moves in which rails lag.
11. A study of the capitalization of a company, the degree of activity of an issue (a varying factor), and whether an issue is a lethargic truck horse like Consolidated Edison or Exxon or a spirited, volatile race horse like Teledyne (NYSE) or Resorts International (American) is fully as important as a study of statistical reports. (Volatile stocks are 1978 counterparts of two issues mentioned in 1934, Aluminum Co. of America, then on the Curb, and Case Threshing Machine, now J.I. Case, a part of Tenneco.)

I posted a quote the other day from Boone Pickens. Some more:

Be willing to make decisions. That’s the most important quality in a good leader. Don’t fall victim to what I call the ready-aim-aim-aim-aim syndrome. You must be willing to fire.
T. Boone Pickens

I’ve always believed that it’s important to show a new look periodically. Predictability can lead to failure.
T. Boone Pickens

Keep things informal. Talking is the natural way to do business. Writing is great for keeping records and putting down details, but talk generates ideas. Great things come from out luncheon meetings which consist of a sandwich, a cup of soup, and a good idea or two. No martinis.
T. Boone Pickens

Work eight hours and sleep eight hours and make sure that they are not the same hours.
T. Boone Pickens