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Archive for November, 2007

Silence of the Turtles

One of the most interesting aspects of the Turtles was Jack Schwager’s chapter title of “The Silence of the Turtles” in his classic book “The New Market Wizards” (1992). While there was almost no information in that book on the Turtles (no one would really talk to Schwager in detail) the book did set in motion a Turtle secrecy mantra that for many has stayed in place all the way to this day. My book “The Complete TurtleTrader” took two related efforts to bring the book together: it was a combination of detailed investigative research and first person interviews. To this day some of the Turtles still don’t want the story out there, even though it is one great, educational lesson for everyone.

Michael Covel Podcasts

Someone asked the other day about my podcasts. They are still going strong here.

Demystifying Managed Futures

A brief paper (PDF) aimed at demystifying managed futures from Man Investments.

Searching for the Holy Grail

A recent comment seen:

[I] would like to know what was the top stories in the past few days/months to find out what was the main reason why the market moved that direction on this day…does anyone know which would be the best source online to find this info? I’d like to be able to just select the day and find out exactly what happened on that day instead of searching through a load of mixed events.

Trying to find “news” explanations for historical price movements is an entirely subjective exercise…and pointless.

Jim Rogers on No Prediction

I caught an interview excerpt the other day:

Dave Goodboy: Do you use technical analysis at all?

Jim Rogers: No, its pretty simple just figuring out what is going on in the world. I try to find things that are cheap and invest in them if I see some positive change coming. I don’t understand the charts. Don’t misunderstand me, I do look at the charts, but I only look at a simple long-term chart to see what has happened over the last 15 years or so, not to tell me what is going to happen in the future. For example, if I am looking at sugar, I want to know the high, the low, when, why, and things like that. I look at the charts to educate me, rather than a predicting tool.

Rogers, who has said that he is not a trend follower to me, sure sounds very similar with his non-prediction stance.

Freedomnomics: Why the Free Market Works and Other Half-Baked Theories Don’t

Are free market economies really based on fleecing the consumer? Is the U.S. economy truly just a giant free-for-all that encourages duplicity in our everyday transactions? Is everyone from corporate CEOs to your local car salesman really looking to make a buck at your expense? Watch.

Michael Lewis Article About Wall Street’s Irrelevancy

The December 2007 issue of Portfolio magazine has an article titled “The Evolution of an Investor” by Michael Lewis. An excerpt that caught my eye:

Nobody knows what the market as a whole is going to do, not even Warren Buffett. A handful of people with amazing track records isn’t evidence that people can game the market. Nobody knows which company will prove a good long-term investment. Even Buffett’s genius lies more in running businesses than in picking stocks. But in the investing world, that is ignored. Wall Street, with its army of brokers, analysts, and advisers funneling trillions of dollars into mutual funds, hedge funds, and private equity funds, is an elaborate fraud. The problem was the entire edifice of modern Wall Street, in which some people—brokers, analysts, mutual fund managers, hedge fund managers—presented themselves as experts and were paid fantastic sums of money for their expertise. But essentially, Ellis argued, there was no such thing as financial expertise. “I read this book,” Blaine says, “and I thought, My whole life is a lie, and everyone around me is facilitating this lie.”

Trend Following

Covel's Bestseller

'Broke' on DVD

Covel's Documentary

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Inside Turtle Story

We passionately teach the lessons of the great traders who have made their trend following fortunes over the last four decades. More info on seminars and consulting.

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Market Wizard Interviews by Michael Covel


  • Jim Rogers on the Fed con.

  • Market Wizard Larry Hite discusses dating odds.

  • Poker pro Howard Lederer on poker & trading the markets.

  • Trader Salem Abraham talks about the unexpected.

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