Archive for January, 2008

Food for Psych Thought

Just how representative are the people who volunteer for psychology experiments? Interesting.

Why Trends Persist

Trends exist and persist. Why? There are many, many reasons. One perhaps at first appearing off topic reason for why trends in the markets will persist can be found in the halls of DC government. Do you think the people who work for this government and or the people who run this government are rational, logical, thoughtful people? If this is how they run their workplace, how they run their government, do you think these same folks turn around and make rational, logical, thoughtful choices when it comes to their investments? I could pick any number of human behavior examples (and I am not mocking their porn surfing), but if so many people can’t even get going in a straight line when it comes to their daily job, if the leaders are not even in tune with what the employees are even doing, it’s not hard to understand why issues in behavioral finance will persist.

Fed Folly

I admit when it comes to commentary on the Fed’s actions of recent I am lazy in a sense. It’s just too easy to let Ritholtz say it because frankly he says it so damn well:

Was it a misunderstanding of their mandate, inexperience, or just plain hubris? Regardless, it took only 2 days to learn just how ill-considered the Fed’s emergency market rescue plan was: To wit, a fraudulent series of losses led to a major European bank unwinding a huge trade: Societe Generale Reports EU4.9 Billion Trading Loss. SG’s $7.1Billion dollar unwinding led to panicked futures selling on Monday and Tuesday. Hence, we quickly learn what sheer folly and utter irresponsibility it is for the Fed to use its limited ammunition to intervene in equity prices. Their panicky rate cute were not to insure the smooth functioning of the markets, but rather, to guarantee prices. As we have been saying for the past two days, this is not the Fed’s charge. They are supposed to be maintaining price stability (fighting inflation) and maximizing employment (supporting growth) — NOT guaranteeing stock prices. I guess the European Central Bank has it easier: Their only charge is to fight inflation: “maintain price stability, safeguarding the value of the euro.” Tuesday’s panicked 75 basis cut will prove to be an historical embarrassment, a blot on the Fed for all its days. Failing to understand what their responsibilities are is bad enough; allowing themselves to be bossed around by Futures traders is inexcusable. And, having been rewarded for their past tantrums, the market will now be screaming for another 75 bps next week. As Rick Santelli appropriately observed, the Pavlonian training is now complete.

One of the posters to his comment offered:

Barry the Fed had to do it. The market was almost certain to crash. All the baby boomer’s retirement money would have went up in smoke and it almost certainly would have caused depression.

That’s where some are in their understanding of markets? The boomers better get ready to fill those Walmart greeter positions.

Makes the Sad Point in First Few Minutes

Feeding the Lion

You feed the lions. They have not been fed for a long time. You throw them some monster steaks. They swallow those whole and look back at you with their mouths wide open. More rate cuts (steaks)?

Beg, Whine, Cry

I am not really sure what to make of this. Sure, the cute, try to be funny part is clear, but at the end of the day no one gets ahead regardless of their circumstance by begging and whining.

Ritholtz Nails It

Sums it up doesn’t he?

German Interview and Cover

An interview conducted for the German magazine Der Aktionär can be found here (PDF). The cover of the German translation of “The Complete TurtleTrader”:

Does This Mean Things Are Bad?

This passage caught my eye and sarcasm:

That means the FTSE 100 has now fallen by around 10 per cent in the last 10 days, by around 15 per cent over the last month and is well on the way to being off 20 per cent since its most recent high of 6754 in July – before the world’s banking system was sent spiraling. It is also the worst start to the year for the stock market since records began in 1936. “I smell the acrid stench of fear and uncertainty,” said markets commentator David Buik of BGC Partners. European markets also tumbled.

True to Life Pygmalion Story

While I believe “The Complete TurtleTrader means different things to different people, it is very interesting to see the diverse feedback. A review posted by a reader:

Covel’s true to life Pygmalion story is an inspiration to all of us, Aside from everything that all the other reviewers are mentioning…I’ll add this. If you’re a trader or investor who ever loses money because of wrong decisions that are triggered by emotional responses to events in the markets, then you should read “The Complete Turtle Trader.” It will educate and inspire you in a far more profound and visceral way than 99% of the trading psychology books that are on the market.

A more refined nature versus nurture take over Trading Places!

Feedback from Original Turtles

Feedback in about “The Complete TurtleTrader” from six original Turtles trained by Richard Dennis. By and large the Turtles seem to be of few words when it comes to reviews!

“I did enjoy the book…I hope it’s doing well for you.”
Turtle #1

“The book was wonderful…”
Turtle #2

“Liked it. Congratulations on a job well done.”
Turtle #3

“Book is very good…thank you for going for the truth and objectivity.”
Turtle #4

“Nice book.”
Turtle #5

“All in all, not bad. I wish it had never been done and I wish I were not in it, but I know that you were definitely going to do it, so I figured I would try to get the truth out as much as possible. By and large, it worked that way.”
Turtle #6

Top 10: 13 Weeks Straight

“The Complete TurtleTrader” made The Straits Times (Singapore) top 10 bestsellers in non-fiction for the 13th week in a row.

 

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