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When Do You Get off the Ship?

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Hi Michael! This is not a response to anything in particular. It may even qualify as a rant. The idea below keeps popping up in many settings and I don’t get it. Maybe you can explain why it makes sense or why it persists when it doesn’t. The idea is the “price target”, as in, “Sell the stock when it reaches your price target”. A common way to create a price target is to estimate what the P/E ratio should be or will be, and estimate what earnings will be. Then, multiply these two numbers to get the target price. Thus, this number is the product (both literal-mathematically and figuratively) of multiplying a guess by another guess to end up with a number that is believed to be significant and should govern your trading. So, if I have a stock that is heading up like a rocket leaving the launch pad, I’m supposed to dump it because it reached some analyst’s price target? Regards, Chuck Cain

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Michael Covel is an author, director and entrepreneur who founded the internationally known website TurtleTrader® in 1996. Covel's first book was the bestselling "Trend Following" (FT Press, Apr. 04, Nov. 05, Feb. 07 & Feb. 09). His second book "The Complete TurtleTrader" (HarperCollins, Oct. 2007 & Feb. 09) is the definitive inside look at legendary trader Richard Dennis and his student traders "The Turtles". In 2009 Covel released "Broke: The New American Dream" a film documentary investigating the 2007-2009 market crisis and crash. Not afraid of a crowd or controversy, Covel is known for engaging and provocative speeches presented to audiences in Tokyo, Paris, Macau (China), Vienna (Austria), Hong Kong, Dallas, Miami and São Paulo (Brazil). He has been quoted and interviewed by likes of The Wall Street Journal, Barrons, New York Post, Globe and Mail and Bloomberg.

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