Battling the Next Bubble
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August 28th, 2008 at 10:42 am
In my opinion, that main problem of battling this bubble is that there is one factor now that never existed before that will change markets. Sure, some people will say that I am contradicting trend following philosophy by saying the above, but this time it is slightly different. I understand and have seen that human stupidity creates economic bubbles and crisis and sadly there is no cure as bubbles will repeat over and over again.
However, in addition to human stupidity being the main cause for economic booms and busts, this time, dwindling oil reserves will most likely create a depression not just a recession. Recently, I saw a documentary concerning how we depend too much on oil for heating, transportation, food production in for form of insecticides, power in the form of electricity plants, plastics and for our current suburban lifestyle. Sadly, there are no other sources of power that can substitute for oil due to the fact that the are either to expensive to produce or take oil consumption to be possible in the first place. I am curious to know what will happen if these intellectuals are correct concerning whether global oil production has reached its peak! Sure, might recover from this bubble but sooner or later, we will run out of oil.
August 28th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
They were saying we’ll run out of oil back in the 1930’s too. They’ve been wrong on that prediction for almost 80yrs now.