Michael Covel

tobash Added:

September 2nd, 2008 at 7:09 am

the fed mucked it up? thats some fine fundamental analysis there Mike, stick to the numbers!

bert j. gilbert Added:

September 2nd, 2008 at 12:59 pm

How do I get to read the article about Bill Dunn?
Bert

Petter Added:

September 2nd, 2008 at 1:02 pm

Article about John Taylor that tracks trends in currency markets.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=awPlkg9zw9Wk

Michael Covel Added:

September 2nd, 2008 at 1:04 pm

The strategy of trend trading is thrown off by Fed actions. That is not a statement telling you to do something. Since their actions are often unexpected, trend trading (systems trading) makes very good sense. It allows you to deal with unexpected government actions even if that means losing money at times.

Michael Covel Added:

September 2nd, 2008 at 1:04 pm

How do you get article? Click on link…you need to login.

Michael Covel Added:

September 2nd, 2008 at 1:07 pm

A great example of Fed mucking it up could be seen in the summer of 1998. If the Fed did not step in trend traders would have made many more multiples than they did. But the reality is that government does step in regularly. So how do you prepare for that? That was my point whether magazine article conveyed it or not.

Ed Added:

September 2nd, 2008 at 2:19 pm

Great article Michael. Thanks for the link. I disagree though with the writers statement that 2003-2005 was a fun time for trend followers. Didnt trend followers like JWH and others get hit hard during those times?

It’s good to see guys like Dunn doing well again. He sticks to what he knows works in the long haul. People are so quick to throw trend followers under the bus after a relatively small period of time if they have a drawdown. If you look at the big picture, guys like Dunn have had great sucess in the long run. With so mnay of these “Wall Street” funds blowing up and locking investors out from getting their money because of poor performance, it’s good to see guys like Dunn back at the top of their game.

tobash Added:

September 2nd, 2008 at 4:04 pm

oh, i agree, i just think its a interesting quote, i guess context is everything, eh?

EKM Added:

September 3rd, 2008 at 9:13 am

Michael, I read the article at the same moment I saw the Ospraie Fund closing news closing, just yesterday. I remember when you inquired on your site, about the status of Mr. Dunn’s fund, probably about the same time that Mr. Anderson’s funds were still doing well.

In that same issue of this magazine, some young trader talked about having 240+ winning days in the past year versus a handful of losing days, but try doing that over the same length of time as Mr. Dunn (or even Mr. Anderson for that matter), basically over a decade plus.

Then we’ll see if that young man’s stat is worth bragging over, especially if a handful of days (or say about six weeks, or 30 trading days, in Ospraie Fund’s case I think) is all it takes to wipe out years of sincere effort by a group of intelligent, hard-working, well-funded and connected people. Or try going 3 years without pay in Mr. Dunn’s case before risk-management survival and consistent trading yet again payoff.