Trend Following Manifesto

Michael Covel's daily trend following, economic & political commentary. Trend following trading has produced decades of above average performance. Learn how right here.

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2 Responses to “IndyMac Insight”

1. Mohammad Saleh Says:
   September 27th, 2008 at 12:02 pm

   Change holds obscure risk (deferent to deferent people, for some that amount is equal to their holdings in IndyMac for example) When you have all your eggs in one basket, you may experience one of two fears, either the fear of total loss or the fear of gradual loss, in the case of fear of total loss you become in denial and that will prevent you from cutting your gradually mounting losses short. You no longer see the losses happening in the moment of now, but instead you tend to attempt to predict good future outcome and prediction like we all know is a linear impossible ignorant act of focusing on one probability which we choose and ignoring the rest of the probabilities. So by isolating this good probability and weighing it against the losses, no matter how big the loss is, you will be fooled by thinking that things will turn around, basically we are like a horse with blinders, we see what we wish to see and ignore what we wish to ignore, we create our own reality by not accepting what reality creates for us, it does not work.

   I have just taken my first look at IndyMac chart, it was in decline from February 2007, in July 2007 things have gotten worse, any sane stocks trader would have unloaded his long and if allowed he has been short a lot, for other sane banking with IndyMac, maybe move to HSBC or CitiBank. It is not hard to be reactive, it is just common sense.

   Maybe people read the news and because there is so much news out there, people tend to choose what they want to hear and ignore the rest because it gives them a sense of comfort, and it is true that it is easier to sit still than to act, yet it is on the long run dangerous to be comfortable, like Ed Seykota mentioned: Tensions Indicates Intension, if you don’t feel pain you will not act.

2. Ralph Horwood Says:
   September 29th, 2008 at 10:00 am

   I feel that Michael Perry was an HONEST MAN and got taken down by —- Schumer. He was the problem! Why didn’t Schumer find a problem with the banks in his home state of New York? He is a crook from day one!

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