I hope P.E.T.A. doesn’t condemn me for some of the marketing materials we are using for my film. Designers for my movie poster came up with the idea of shaving the movie title into the side of a sheep – spelling out the title that is. Since the shaving of sheep is standard practice, I expect our shaving efforts are acceptable. Poster to follow.

Note: These folks may have some problems with my use of sheep.

I mentioned the other day that one of the Turtles passed away. His name was Michael Shannon. I feel fortunate to have spoken with Shannon for my book “The Complete TurtleTrader”. Of all of the Turtles Shannon was perhaps the most open about the human side of the equation within the Turtle experiment. I hope to share some of Shannon’s recorded interviews in the near future. Words in a book are great, but sometimes hearing the actual voice adds an entirely different dimension to the story.

The Dow hit a high a year ago under the current President and Congress. The Dow hit a low October 2008 under the current President and Congress. If you are going to the polls in America this November to “vote” for the stock market and or economy to go up, I suggest that you seek counseling or therapy instead. Politicians are cheerleaders folks, not catalysts.

Maria Bartiromo interviewed John McCain today. In talking about the interview she mentioned that off camera before it started that she told McCain the market was up 200 points. McCain then asked why it was up 200 points. Now that is a depressing lack of knowledge on McCain’s part. Perhaps Obama is as equally lost when it comes to the market, I don’t know. I do know that hearing a potential President ask Maria Bartiromo why the market was up 200 points, after watching no one be able to predict October 2008, and after watching the random volatility of the last 30 days, makes me feel like getting drunk…and I rarely drink!

A reader, Dave Stancavish, sent me this today:

Hi Michael, I am re-reading an old favorite and came across a quote that made me think of your site, and your comments on market commentary headlines:

“I often wonder why it is that financial writers try so hard to determine the exact causes behind the action of a certain stock on a given day. Doubtless it is because their readers demand it. The variety of their interpretations is amazing. It only shows the futility of attempting to ever gauge market movements by published news.” Humphrey B. Neill, Tape Reading & Market Tactics, New York: BC Forbes Publishing Co., 1931, p.226

Thanks Dave. I saw this line from Mark Cuban today:

At no other time have their been 3 financial news networks and thousands of websites providing so much financial information and opinion. The sum of which has definitely lead us into a situation of “Paralysis by Bullshitalysis”.

Good point from Cuban. A point I make strongly in my film. The whole Cuban post is here.

Andrew Lahde made a ton shorting real estate. He posted a farewell letter as he closed down his hedge fund at highs. The letter has some arrogance for sure, but quite a bit of truth.

As I have mentioned trend followers have had a great October so far. However, it is worth noting how that happened:

1. Trend followers did not know stock markets would crash in October.
2. Trend followers have not made all of their money from shorting stocks in October.
3. Trend followers have made money off many different markets from oil to bonds to currencies.

Their unexpected October 08 performance reminds me of the 1998 Long Term Capital blowup where trend traders won big as well. If I could edit my first book “Trend Following” October 08 would be another “event” for chapter 4.

My comments above brought in this feedback:

Neither did anyone else know the stock markets would crash in October. “Buy and holders”  also did not make all their money from shorting stocks in October. Some of the rest of us also had some diversified holdings. Your observation was rather inane.

This poster missed the point. Trend followers have made lots of money in October 08. Most people don’t know that.

David Harding of Winton Capital outlines the fear of market closures.

I saw Arthur Laffer speak in the mid-nineties at a small forum. His op-ed in today’s Wall Street Journal is good reading.

I saw this headline on the front of the USA Today today:

Voter ‘anger’ has Dems set for big gains in Congress

Forget the political aspects of that headline, what’s with the ‘anger’ nonsense? Does this mean all those people who bought houses and condos with no money down, possessing no job, and now facing foreclosure and or bankruptcy are ‘angry’ at themselves or someone else? This was not just another headline designed to make the average guy feel as if he had no culpability? Let me get this straight. The entire market crash was all just a clever plan to get rich by Wall Street investment banks that have now gone out of business? The banks may have made dumb descisions, but so did the people speculating on dicey real estate. More than a few people have gone broke, and at the end of the day we all have to be responsible for our decisions.