1. The American baby boom generation has seen their buy and hold retirement accounts shredded in the last year. Shredded. An entire generation, perhaps the most influential American generation, was sold the story that buy and hold would take them to retirement shangri-la. Anyone got plan B for these folks?
2. I just caught a Russian market official speaking about Russian market distress. He said that the Russians were responsible for their troubles 10 years ago, but now the Americans are responsible for the latest crisis. Nice try. The current global meltdown is a result of first greed then fear. Those emotions don’t care about nationalities or borders. So if you, or if anyone, regardless of country, don’t like your portfolio’s direction…look in the mirror.
3. How far can the Dow drop? I don’t know. No one knows. If someone tells you they know, and you believe them, please go see a medical doctor to ask for a full frontal lobotomy.
October 9th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
when i call home, i continue asking my dad if everyhtings ok. he continues changing the topic. your trend following book that i bought him continues to be on the living room table. it continues to look brand new. le sigh.
October 9th, 2008 at 9:01 pm
You’re correct about the 401k. They claim a 12% average annual return! But that doesn’t include a 1-2% management fee. We all know the miracle of compound interest. That 1-2% costs enormous amounts over a forty year period. And if you ever have a 50% drawdown you can never recover. But your financial advisor will. He’ll retire at rich a the age of 48. A guaranteed 2% return from social security doesn’t sound too bad.
October 10th, 2008 at 1:45 am
The problem with 401ks is that nobody actually educates themselves until it’s too late. Instead of balancing their assets and reducing risk they continue to pour the risk on. When shit goes up in flames they want to blame everyone else and cry to the government for help. Too much entitlement going on nowadays. Now I’m no die hard buy and hold investor, but couldn’t you argue that the S&P is in one of the greatest trends of all time?
October 10th, 2008 at 10:29 pm
Just follow the trend. The trend now is shorting the market. It will be stupid if you take a long position.
I think no hedge fund trader dares to take a long positions. Only the government dares to do it, after all it is not their money. The tax payers will pay for it.
October 10th, 2008 at 10:36 pm
I don’t care what they say in the press or whatever.
I just follow the trend.
Everything is in the PRICE, i.e sentiments, perceptions, current health of the economy, fdi, politics, presidential election, terrorists threat,bailouts, G7 etc.
The fundamental of trading, JUST FOLLOW THE TREND, CUT LOSSES AND RIDE THE RPOFIT.
October 11th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
Yes the S&P is in one of the greatest downtrends of all time. Also volatility is at record highs. That makes me wonder how anyone can believe that volatility is an “enemy” of trends. Volatility is your friend, embrace it, adapt to it, and ride that trend!
October 16th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
You have no idea the impact your book has had in my financial life. This past March, after realizing the trend has turned in the markets, I did something that was unheard of at the time. I got out of the mutuals funds in my RRSP(401k) and went to cash. To think I almost didn’t pull the trigger on that sends a chill up my spine. I owe it all to your book Trend Following. That book changed my trading life and now my retirement plans. Once the trend turns back up, and only then, I will then put it back in the mutual funds. Thank you Michael, my wife thinks I’m a genius.
October 16th, 2008 at 7:21 pm
My strategy is to do the exact opposite of whatever Andrew Landeryou suggests. works for me!
October 17th, 2008 at 8:33 am
I have taken a couple of courses here in Toronto, Canada through the Canadian Securities Institute. Most of their courses advance the notion that to strategy of buy and hold through diversification is the best way to make money in the markets. It is a deeply ingrained concept due to the fact that many educational courses in finance as well as many professors promote it due to their belief in efficient markets. Trend following and technical analysis in general is seen in a negative light. They believe that diversification is the key to success. To make matters worse, the only technical course offered focuses on proactive technical analysis not reactive. With so much confusion out there about what to do and how to do it is it any wonder that people are losing money while trying to wade their way through the noise?