Archive for December, 2008
Posted in Trend Following | 8 Comments | Tuesday, December 23rd, 2008
Trend following critic Geetesh Bhardwaj has provided interesting hypocrisy here (and for my new edition of “Trend Following”), but the email that came in below from a trend following CTA is a topper. As you read it keep in mind that Geetesh worked at AIG and has written a paper ripping trend following (while he worked at AIG):
Great stuff with Geetesh…Very entertaining reading. Here’s a bit of irony for you – we manage a significant amount of money for AIG and have done so for several years!
Not really a surprise.
Posted in Economics | 1 Comment | Monday, December 22nd, 2008
Anyone who looks to the government for solutions…needs a full frontal lobotomy. Case in point.
Posted in Multimedia | No Comments | Monday, December 22nd, 2008
Posted in Holy Grails | 2 Comments | Monday, December 22nd, 2008
Henry Blodget offers some good food for thought on Madoff investors. Jeff Matthews also points fingers. And if you see this performance curve…run! How bad will this all get as it unravels? Really bad! What about Bernie’s accountant? One guy tells how he was screwed.
Posted in Economics | No Comments | Sunday, December 21st, 2008
Posted in Economics | No Comments | Sunday, December 21st, 2008
One fundamental opinion why housing crashed.
Posted in Trend Following | No Comments | Sunday, December 21st, 2008
Bob Pardo writes very good books on trading systems. He also trades as a trend follower. His annual compounded rate of return:
2003: +27.65%
2004: +4.84%
2005: -14.65%
2006: -15.13%
2007: +63.71%
2008: +114.62%
To those Madoff defenders on here who keep saying that no one could have known that 1% a month every month was a sign of trouble, take a look at Pardo. You don’t win every month and you don’t win every year. More from Pardo:
+19.08%; 11-2008
+114.62; YTD 2008
+937.41; Since Inception 06-1999
+27.92%; ARR Since Inception 06-1999
Posted in Trend Following | 2 Comments | Saturday, December 20th, 2008
Jim Rohrbach writes on a subject many people don’t want to hear about.
Posted in Holy Grails | 14 Comments | Wednesday, December 17th, 2008
From the New York Times today:
When Jeanne Levy-Church created the JEHT Foundation in 2002 to promote justice, equality, human dignity and tolerance, she tapped into investments run by Bernard L. Madoff. Those investments were initially made more than three decades ago by her father, Norman Levy, who entrusted his real estate fortune to Mr. Madoff. Financed solely by regular contributions from Ms. Levy-Church, the foundation gave away more than $75 million over the next few years. But on Monday, the young foundation announced that it would cease operations by the end of January – a victim of the same investments that made it a star in liberal philanthropic circles. “The returns had been steady and strong for all these years,” said Robert Crane, the foundation’s chief executive. “It was shocking.”
What was shocking? That the good thing that made no sense, the good thing that produced such easy money for so long, was finally exposed as a con? Think I am too harsh? Well, it is clear that some very wealthy people are currently all over the media with “I don’t know what happened” cries. It rings hollow.
Posted in Risk Management, Statistical Thinking | 2 Comments | Wednesday, December 17th, 2008
A good article about a critical subject.
Posted in Economics | 7 Comments | Wednesday, December 17th, 2008
Posted in Feedback, Multimedia | 2 Comments | Tuesday, December 16th, 2008
From Jonathan Hoenig at Smart Money:
I make a brief appearance in “Broke: The New American Dream,” a film by Michael Covel set to be released on DVD and in select theaters in early 2009. The movie is a thoughtful overview of many of today’s major economic themes, including the housing collapse, stock-market volatility and the rapidly growing nanny state. Throughout, the film deals with issues of particular importance to traders: uncertainty, risk and the importance of not following the herd. Covel, who previously wrote the excellent book “Trend Following,” nails compelling quips from many of the trading world’s most influential voices including Jim Rogers, Eric Bolling, Barry Ritholtz and fund manager David Harding. He also happens to be a clever storyteller. Amid interviews with the requisite deadbeat homeowners now upside-down on their house payments are a few particularly funny bits. Legendary economist and Nobel Prize winner Harry Markowitz’s hilarious remark about how “Bartiloni is a cute kid” — he’s mistakenly referring to CNBC’s Maria Bartiromo — is worth the price of admission alone. “I can watch it for 20 minutes,” he says, referring to cable business television, “but I wouldn’t invest in anything they say.” More ironic than amusing is Bill Miller’s take on controlling risk, which is particularly notable since the interview with the Legg Mason fund manager was given in the fall of 2007, right around the time Miller’s historic track record began to crumble. In the wake of the recent economic turmoil, we’re likely to see a rash of books and movies that stress how destructive and dangerous markets are. Without minimizing the severity of the decline, the message of Covel’s film is thankfully one of empowerment and potential. Covel seems to suggest that it’s neither capitalism nor the markets that are “broke,” but the American spirit of rugged individualism, decimated to the point where we’ve become sheep, recklessly betting our retirements on has-been mutual funds for “the long haul,” a worthless a cable-TV tip or even the lottery. From a Tokyo fish market to a deserted real-estate development, the film will challenge your pre-existing bias about financial markets and the endless torrent of talking heads to which they are now inextricably intertwined.
Posted in Holy Grails | 12 Comments | Monday, December 15th, 2008
From the AP today:
When local officials in Fairfield, Conn., heard of Madoff’s arrest “it set off every bell,” said Paul Hiller, the town’s chief fiscal officer. The town’s employees board and police and fire board — which cover 971 workers — had $41.9 million invested with Madoff, said Paul Hiller, Fairfield’s chief fiscal officer. Town officials immediately notified their investment fund to liquidate. “At that point, it was too late,” he said. “We obviously didn’t ask enough questions,” Hiller said.
Continuing:
New Jersey Sen. Frank Lautenberg, one of the wealthiest members of the Senate, entrusted his family’s charitable foundation to Madoff. Lautenberg’s attorney, Michael Griffinger, said they weren’t yet sure the extent of the foundation’s losses, but that the bulk of its investments had been handled by Madoff.
The bulk? Go figure. Easy come, easy go. Here is the full list of “innocents”…I mean suckers. Don’t like my harshness? Well, this is a gross episode that goes far beyond one man.
Posted in Holy Grails | 1 Comment | Monday, December 15th, 2008
Posted in Book News | 3 Comments | Monday, December 15th, 2008