Archive for December, 2008

By Saying Yes, WaMu Built Empire on Shaky Loans

What a sham. An excerpt:

As a supervisor at a Washington Mutual mortgage processing center, John D. Parsons was accustomed to seeing baby sitters claiming salaries worthy of college presidents, and schoolteachers with incomes rivaling stockbrokers’. He rarely questioned them. A real estate frenzy was under way and WaMu, as his bank was known, was all about saying yes. Yet even by WaMu’s relaxed standards, one mortgage four years ago raised eyebrows. The borrower was claiming a six-figure income and an unusual profession: mariachi singer. Mr. Parsons could not verify the singer’s income, so he had him photographed in front of his home dressed in his mariachi outfit. The photo went into a WaMu file. Approved.

Time for A Reboot

Call him liberal. Call him conservative. Call him libertarian. It doesn’t matter, he is usually right on the money. Tom Friedman’s latest opionion is on target. An excerpt:

I had a bad day last Friday, but it was an all-too-typical day for America. It actually started well, on Kau Sai Chau, an island off Hong Kong, where I stood on a rocky hilltop overlooking the South China Sea and talked to my wife back in Maryland, static-free, using a friend’s Chinese cellphone. A few hours later, I took off from Hong Kong’s ultramodern airport after riding out there from downtown on a sleek high-speed train — with wireless connectivity that was so good I was able to surf the Web the whole way on my laptop. Landing at Kennedy Airport from Hong Kong was, as I’ve argued before, like going from the Jetsons to the Flintstones. The ugly, low-ceilinged arrival hall was cramped, and using a luggage cart cost $3. (Couldn’t we at least supply foreign visitors with a free luggage cart, like other major airports in the world?) As I looked around at this dingy room, it reminded of somewhere I had been before. Then I remembered: It was the luggage hall in the old Hong Kong Kai Tak Airport. It closed in 1998. The next day I went to Penn Station, where the escalators down to the tracks are so narrow that they seem to have been designed before suitcases were invented. The disgusting track-side platforms apparently have not been cleaned since World War II. I took the Acela, America’s sorry excuse for a bullet train, from New York to Washington. Along the way, I tried to use my cellphone to conduct an interview and my conversation was interrupted by three dropped calls within one 15-minute span. All I could think to myself was: If we’re so smart, why are other people living so much better than us?

Hong Kong’s airport is awesome, but I am not sure it is better than Tokyo’s or Singapore’s. Plus I have not seen Beijing’s new airport yet, which is said to be over the top. That said, Friedman is on the money – America is behind – big time.

Bernard Madoff in Barrons Circa 2001

Here is a 2001 Barrons article that 2008 apologists for Bernard Madoff clients probably wanted to forget about:

Monday, May 7, 2001

Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell Bernie Madoff is so secretive, he even asks investors to keep mum

By ERIN E. ARVEDLUND

Bernie Madoff might as well hang that sign on his secretive hedge-fund empire. Even adoring investors can’t explain his enviably steady gains.

Two years ago, at a hedge-fund conference in New York, attendees were asked to name some of their favorite and most-respected hedge-fund managers. Neither George Soros nor Julian Robertson merited a single mention. But one manager received lavish praise: Bernard Madoff.

Folks on Wall Street know Bernie Madoff well. His brokerage firm, Madoff Securities, helped kick-start the Nasdaq Stock Market in the early 1970s and is now one of the top three market makers in Nasdaq stocks. Madoff Securities is also the third-largest firm matching buyers and sellers of New York Stock Exchange-listed securities. Charles Schwab, Fidelity Investments and a slew of discount brokerages all send trades through Madoff.

Some folks on Wall Street think there’s more to how Madoff (above) generates his enviable stream of investment returns than meets the eye. Madoff calls these claims “ridiculous.” But what few on the Street know is that Bernie Madoff also manages $6 billion-to-$7 billion for wealthy individuals. That’s enough to rank Madoff’s operation among the world’s three largest hedge funds, according to a May 2001 report in MAR Hedge, a trade publication.

What’s more, these private accounts, have produced compound average annual returns of 15% for more than a decade. Remarkably, some of the larger, billion-dollar Madoff-run funds have never had a down year.

When Barron’s asked Madoff Friday how he accomplishes this, he said, “It’s a proprietary strategy. I can’t go into it in great detail.”

Nor were the firms that market Madoff’s funds forthcoming when contacted earlier. “It’s a private fund. And so our inclination has been not to discuss its returns,” says Jeffrey Tucker, partner and co-founder of Fairfield Greenwich, a New York City-based hedge-fund marketer. “Why Barron’s would have any interest in this fund I don’t know.” One of Fairfield Greenwich’s most sought-after funds is Fairfield Sentry Limited. Managed by Bernie Madoff, Fairfield Sentry has assets of $3.3 billion.

A Madoff hedge-fund offering memorandums describes his strategy this way: “Typically, a position will consist of the ownership of 30-35 S&P 100 stocks, most correlated to that index, the sale of out-of-the- money calls on the index and the purchase of out-of-the-money puts on the index. The sale of the calls is designed to increase the rate of return, while allowing upward movement of the stock portfolio to the strike price of the calls. The puts, funded in large part by the sale of the calls, limit the portfolio’s downside.”

Among options traders, that’s known as the “split-strike conversion” strategy. In layman’s terms, it means Madoff invests primarily in the largest stocks in the S&P 100 index — names like General Electric, Intel and Coca-Cola. At the same time, he buys and sells options against those stocks. For example, Madoff might purchase shares of GE and sell a call option on a comparable number of shares — that is, an option to buy the shares at a fixed price at a future date. At the same time, he would buy a put option on the stock, which gives him the right to sell shares at a fixed price at a future date.

The strategy, in effect, creates a boundary on a stock, limiting its upside while at the same time protecting against a sharp decline in the share price. When done correctly, this so-called market-neutral strategy produces positive returns no matter which way the market goes.

Using this split-strike conversion strategy, Fairfield Sentry Limited has had only four down months since inception in 1989. In 1990, Fairfield Sentry was up 27%. In the ensuing decade, it returned no less than 11% in any year, and sometimes as high as 18%. Last year, Fairfield Sentry returned 11.55% and so far in 2001, the fund is up 3.52%.

Those returns have been so consistent that some on the Street have begun speculating that Madoff’s market-making operation subsidizes and smooths his hedge-fund returns.

How might Madoff Securities do this? Access to such a huge capital base could allow Madoff to make much larger bets — with very little risk — than it could otherwise. It would work like this: Madoff Securities stands in the middle of a tremendous river of orders, which means that its traders have advance knowledge, if only by a few seconds, of what big customers are buying and selling. By hopping on the bandwagon, the market maker could effectively lock in profits. In such a case, throwing a little cash back to the hedge funds would be no big deal.

When Barron’s ran that scenario by Madoff, he dismissed it as “ridiculous.”

Still, some on Wall Street remain skeptical about how Madoff achieves such stunning double-digit returns using options alone. The recent MAR Hedge report, for example, cited more than a dozen hedge fund professionals, including current and former Madoff traders, who questioned why no one had been able to duplicate Madoff’s returns using this strategy. Likewise, three option strategists at major investment banks told Barron’s they couldn’t understand how Madoff churns out such numbers. Adds a former Madoff investor: “Anybody who’s a seasoned hedge- fund investor knows the split-strike conversion is not the whole story. To take it at face value is a bit nave.”

Madoff dismisses such skepticism. “Whoever tried to reverse-engineer, he didn’t do a good job. If he did, these numbers would not be unusual.” Curiously, he charges no fees for his money-management services. Nor does he take a cut of the 1.5% fees marketers like Fairfield Greenwich charge investors each year. Why not? “We’re perfectly happy to just earn commissions on the trades,” he says.

Perhaps so. But consider the sheer scope of the money Madoff would appear to be leaving on the table. A typical hedge fund charges 1% of assets annually, plus 20% of profits. On a $6 billion fund generating 15% annual returns, that adds up to $240 million a year.

The lessons of Long-Term Capital Management’s collapse are that investors need, or should want, transparency in their money manager’s investment strategy. But Madoff’s investors rave about his performance — even though they don’t understand how he does it. “Even knowledgeable people can’t really tell you what he’s doing,” one very satisfied investor told Barron’s. “People who have all the trade confirmations and statements still can’t define it very well. The only thing I know is that he’s often in cash” when volatility levels get extreme. This investor declined to be quoted by name. Why? Because Madoff politely requests that his investors not reveal that he runs their money.

“What Madoff told us was, ‘If you invest with me, you must never tell anyone that you’re invested with me. It’s no one’s business what goes on here,’” says an investment manager who took over a pool of assets that included an investment in a Madoff fund. “When he couldn’t explain how they were up or down in a particular month,” he added, “I pulled the money out.”

For investors who aren’t put off by such secrecy, it should be noted that Fairfield and Kingate Management both market funds managed by Madoff, as does Tremont Advisers , a publicly traded hedge-fund advisory firm.

Geetesh Bhardwaj: His Firm AIG Invests with CTAs

Trend following critic Geetesh Bhardwaj has provided interesting hypocrisy here (and for my new edition of “Trend Following”), but the email that came in below from a trend following CTA is a topper. As you read it keep in mind that Geetesh worked at AIG and has written a paper ripping trend following (while he worked at AIG):

Great stuff with Geetesh…Very entertaining reading. Here’s a bit of irony for you – we manage a significant amount of money for AIG and have done so for several years!

Not really a surprise.

So You Look to the Government You Say?

Anyone who looks to the government for solutions…needs a full frontal lobotomy. Case in point.

Broke: The New American Dream

Madoff Investors; More Views

Henry Blodget offers some good food for thought on Madoff investors. Jeff Matthews also points fingers. And if you see this performance curve…run! How bad will this all get as it unravels? Really bad! What about Bernie’s accountant? One guy tells how he was screwed.

Biden: Economy Could ‘Absolutely’ Tank

Article.

One Fundamental Reason

One fundamental opinion why housing crashed.

Pardo Capital

Bob Pardo writes very good books on trading systems. He also trades as a trend follower. His annual compounded rate of return:

2003: +27.65%
2004: +4.84%
2005: -14.65%
2006: -15.13%
2007: +63.71%
2008: +114.62%

To those Madoff defenders on here who keep saying that no one could have known that 1% a month every month was a sign of trouble, take a look at Pardo. You don’t win every month and you don’t win every year. More from Pardo:

+19.08%; 11-2008
+114.62; YTD 2008
+937.41; Since Inception 06-1999
+27.92%; ARR Since Inception 06-1999

Buy and Hold Dead

Jim Rohrbach writes on a subject many people don’t want to hear about.

Jeanne Levy-Church: Another “Shocked” Madoff Investor

From the New York Times today:

When Jeanne Levy-Church created the JEHT Foundation in 2002 to promote justice, equality, human dignity and tolerance, she tapped into investments run by Bernard L. Madoff. Those investments were initially made more than three decades ago by her father, Norman Levy, who entrusted his real estate fortune to Mr. Madoff. Financed solely by regular contributions from Ms. Levy-Church, the foundation gave away more than $75 million over the next few years. But on Monday, the young foundation announced that it would cease operations by the end of January – a victim of the same investments that made it a star in liberal philanthropic circles. “The returns had been steady and strong for all these years,” said Robert Crane, the foundation’s chief executive. “It was shocking.”

What was shocking? That the good thing that made no sense, the good thing that produced such easy money for so long, was finally exposed as a con? Think I am too harsh? Well, it is clear that some very wealthy people are currently all over the media with “I don’t know what happened” cries. It rings hollow.

 

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