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Trend Commandments

Michael Covel (FT Press)

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The Little Book of Trading

Michael Covel (Wiley)

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The Complete TurtleTrader

Michael Covel (Collins)

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Trend Following

Michael Covel (FT Press)

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Broke (Film DVD)

Michael Covel

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Top 2008 Earners: Trend Followers Right There

Alpha Magazine’s top 25 earners for 2008 is littered with trend following traders. The trend followers:

6. Bruce Kovner: Caxton Associates $640 Million

The man is a former cabdriver – of course he knows how to survive. Bruce Kovner’s 13 percent net return last year (after a 30 percent performance fee) on his $4.3 billion Caxton Global Investments fund underscores his long-proven ability to perform in difficult markets. The New York-based manager, whose firm Caxton Associates runs $8 billion, made money in 2008 off his renowned macro strategy, gaining 8.1 percent in the final quarter alone, mostly from fixed-income investments – adding to his reputation as a master of capital preservation. Kovner, 64, another member of the Alpha Hedge Fund Hall of Fame, has a more colorful past than most managers. Before coming to hedge funds, he studied New York from behind the wheel of a taxi, took up the harpsichord and worked as a consultant to the national Republican Party. In 1977 he took out a $3,000 credit card advance to finance a shot at commodities trading, and in 1983 founded Caxton with $13 million. He says his edge comes from maintaining his intellectual curiosity and ready flexibility. “One of the most important skills you need is to constantly reinvent where you put resources,” he told Alpha last year. “You must seek out undiscovered information.”

9. David Harding: Winton Capital Management $250 Million

In a year when wave riders ruled, futures trading pioneer David Harding was among the best of breed. The founder, managing director and head of research at London-based Winton Capital Management rode a number of trends – both up and down – including large moves in bonds, equity indexes and commodities (especially energy and grains). His $5.5 billion flagship Winton Futures Fund rose 21 percent. Most of its gains came early in the year: The fund was up 18 percent by the end of May, and then Harding, 47, went on defense, dumping a huge chunk of assets into U.S. Treasuries. Still, his firm, which was managing $13.3 billion at year-end, had about $500 million in redemptions. An honors graduate of Cambridge University, where he specialized in theoretical physics, Harding in 1987 co-founded Adam, Harding & Lueck, a quant shop eventually acquired by London-based Man Group. In 1997 he launched Winton, which uses computer-driven models. More than half its 180-member staff is devoted to research.

18. Kenneth Tropin: Graham Capital Management $120 Million

Trend-following was one of the few winning strategies of 2008, and Ken Tropin was among its most successful practitioners. All 13 of his funds at Graham Capital Management made money – including the one third of his assets that are described as discretionary – enabling him to return to the top-earners list for the first time since 2003. Most of his funds racked up big double-digit returns, ranging from 20 percent to 52 percent. The $4.7 billion Rowayton, Connecticut-based firm reaped profits in a variety of areas – commodities, currencies, equity indexes and fixed-income assets. Its equity bets did especially well when prices dropped in the first and fourth quarters. Tropin was helped by a move in the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar. His firm also profited in metals and soft commodities. Tropin, 55, founded Graham Capital in 1994 as a quantitative macro hedge fund after nearly five years at the helm of managed-futures firm John W. Henry & Co.

22. Christian Baha: Superfund $85 Million

Superfund founder Christian Baha has defied the skeptics who snickered at his strategy of selling managed futures to the little guy. Baha, an Austrian who dropped out of college and in his TV commercials pokes fun at his accent and his inability to properly pronounce “investor,” allows clients to pony up as little as $5,000. His is a pure retail strategy that seems to toy with government restrictions on marketing. “I would love to tell you about Superfund, but regulations prevent me from describing it on television,” he says with a friendly smirk. Last year Baha’s Quadriga Superfund U.S. portfolios generated 30 percent average returns; they qualify as hedge funds because they include short positions and charge a 1.85 percent management fee and a 25 percent performance fee. His more aggressive overseas funds, some of which charge a 6 percent management fee and as much as 35 percent of profits, surged by 46 percent on average. Baha, 40, is one of seven systematic trend followers on this year’s list of top earners. A former police officer for the city of Vienna, he says his firm tracks 120 markets. Last year it was generally short global equity indexes and long many bond markets. In the first half of the year, it was long corn, gold, oil, soybeans and wheat and then shifted strategy, shorting many of those commodities. At year’s end it was managing $1.65 billion.

24. William Dunn: Dunn Capital Management $80 Million

Bill Dunn didn’t coin the phrase “the trend is your friend” – credit for that goes to the late Chicago commodities trader George Lane – but few investors have profited from that popular bit of Wall Street wisdom for as long as the 74-year-old Dunn. The chairman of Stuart, Florida-based Dunn Capital Management has generated a 19.4 percent net annualized composite return since he launched his original trading program in October 1974 in the throes of the OPEC-induced global economic meltdown. After a tough money-losing stretch in the middle of this decade, when there weren’t many long-term trends to follow, Dunn’s funds since September 2007 have soared, capitalizing on sharp price moves – both long- and short-term. His $168 million World Monetary and Agriculture program, founded in 1984, was up 51.5 percent last year. The much younger and larger Mosaic Program, a $222 million fund started in October 2006, surged by 94 percent. Both programs trade across several markets, including agriculture, currencies, energy, interest rates, metals and stock indexes. In the first half of 2008, Dunn went long on commodities, especially cattle, corn, oil and wheat. In the second half he shorted interest rates, stock indexes and certain currencies. He has been broadly short the past six months, explaining that he is worried that the U.S. is drifting toward socialism and that free-market capitalism is imperiled. Dunn, who has a Ph.D. in theoretical physics from Northwestern University, worked as an operations researcher and systems analyst for the Coast Guard, the Marine Corps, the Navy and the Department of Defense before switching to trading.

Who are the other trend followers on the list? I confess ignorance. They say 7 of 25 are. FYI, my new edition of Trend Following features Harding, Baha and Dunn.

Note: No vulgarity or ugly attacks. There are other places for that.

  • Patrick

    ‘He says his edge comes from maintaining his intellectual curiosity and ready flexibility. “One of the most important skills you need is to constantly reinvent where you put resources,” he told Alpha last year. “You must seek out undiscovered information.”’

    That is what i meant by reading between the lines. It might be CNBC chore, other financial newspapers around the world, governmental data, your own stats, etc. etc.

  • Michael Covel

    I can’t tell you how many trend followers I know, many I respect a great deal, and for whatever reason unknown to me, “spin” and “spin” hard. The way you look at a trend follower is to look at his performance first, then see if the words match. Kovner did not make his fortune reading newspapers.

  • http://pages.sbcglobal.net/acom Ken – Today’s Breakout Stocks

    Patrick, Warren Buffett says all he does is buy good companies at a discount. Read Snowball if you really think that is all that he does. You need to read between the lines of what of lot of these guys say too.

  • taylor boyd

    Harding “dumped a huge chunk of his assets into U.S. treasurys.” Is that part of his system or is it a system overide? I wonder what’s up with that.

  • Patrick

    He liquidated most of positions and parked money at time when treasuries were safe haven.

  • Michael Covel

    Guys, these are trend followers go look at his perf. data for 08. You can’t take a few words from a tiny article and deduce anything. Most of these reporters doen’t even understand trend following. He is a trend follower. If you are familiar with trend following…then…

  • taylor boyd

    Michael. I am familiar with trend-following and that is why I posed the question…..just in case the the article spoke the truth about Hardings activities.

  • Doug L

    I’ve considered placing money with some off these money managers. But I can’t get past the huge fees they charge. I’m not saying they’re not worth it. I’m just saying I’m too cheap to pay it. It must be my working class background.

  • Michael Covel

    Doug I think your thought process is entirely illogical, sorry. If the AFTER fee performance is what they deliver, why do you care that they get paid for delivering that performance to you? And with all due respect, what does “working class” mean to you and are you implying people of so-called working class backgrounds are prone to make illogical decisions? To me it seems you are so worried about someone else making money that you would be willing to spite yourself and make less so they make less.

  • http://michaelcovel.com Michael Covel

    I think it is great these men work hard and make it happen. As long as they deliver to clients more power to them.

  • Alexander

    Doug, have you thought about investing in Blackstar Funds? You may find there fees more reasonable.

  • Doug L

    I didn’t say I was being logical. I said I was having a hard time getting past the huge fees they charge.
    In the example of Broce Kovner he made 13% last year after a 30% performance fee. Do I need to pay a 30% performance fee to earn 13%?
    What makes sense to me it to learn how to do it myself. This is what I mean by working class. When I was growing up, if you had plumbing problem you fixed it yourself. If you needed something built, you built it yourself. That’s how everyone I knew did it.
    Thus if you have money to invest you can either give it to someone else and hope they have your best interest at heart, or you can learn to do it yourself. If that’s illogical, then I am illogical.
    I am constantly learning. That is how I came to read your book and study trend following. I believe that if Bruce can do it I can do it.

  • http://michaelcovel.com Michael Covel

    For the people who may have not wanted to go at it alone, 13% in 2008 would be worth paying for…the average mutual fund was down -50% and literally trillions of dollars of wealth evaporated. And beyond Kovner, clearly the others made a lot more than 13%. Can someone post Kovner month by month and annual returns for last 15 years? If someone wants to have a life of not trading for themselves, and the manager of their choice has delivered after fee performance over +20 on average for over 20 years…being worried about fees is silly. And Doug your motivations aside, many of these fee motivated purges by assorted pensions, ahead of strategy or performance considerations, are entire political, i.e “class warfare”. When the dust settles I am sure we will find out many public pension funds had no clue what they were investing in, but at least they can take the high ground of yapping about fees.

  • Doug L

    Your point are well taken and I appreciate them. But I am speaking only from the narrow view of myself and I did not intend to expand my views to encompass the entire investment world. And I do acknowledge that there is a certain illogic to my views. That is something I need to work on. I read an interview with Kovner. He said he employs 250 people. The cost must be enormous. 30% performance fees pays for that, thus that must be taken into account. As an investor one must ask the question can I do it better myself? If the answer is no then you are better of giving your money to someone else.
    You are making me think. Thanks for your views.

  • Patrick

    30% on 13% return (performance) if i’m not mistaking.

    You can do it better or much much worse, personally i like to learn on my own money. If you go the way of trading by your own be sure to check out Van Tharp materials or else you will bleed your self dry & of course check out the Turtle Trader course. ;)

  • http://michaelcovel.com Michael Covel

    When you see trend following performance — fees are already removed.

  • pc

    Any of these trend followers available to clients of Morgan Stanley?


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