Dave Goodboy alerted me to a press release that came across his desk today. An excerpt:
Aliso Viejo, CA (PRWEB) June 16, 2009 — Glenn Neely, founder of NEoWave Institute and prominent Elliott Wave analyst, today announces a startling prediction: The S&P 500 is forming a major top in June, which will be followed by a large decline, eventually pushing the stock market to record lows for the decade. “Technically speaking, according to NEoWave a correction began at last October’s low; the March-June rally is the final leg of that correction,” Neely explains. “The March-June rally is now ending, allowing the bear market to resume. During the next six months, the S&P will decline 50% or more, breaking well below 500!” Currently, the S&P is hovering around 917.
Neely might be right or he might be wrong, but regardless of what might happen in the future if you have a plan predictions are not needed.
June 18th, 2009 at 9:44 am
I think Robert Drach accurately characterized the financial media last year: “So each day begins like a room of monkeys. One monkey gets scared and screeches and jumps, then they all jump and screech.” — Jeff
June 18th, 2009 at 12:54 pm
My own rule based trading is as close to a trend following model as I have ever traded, yet still I find big picture concepts, especially by innovative thinkers like Neely, helpful, even if only to affirm macroeconomic implications of my models.
June 18th, 2009 at 1:17 pm
Pay attention to heard mentality, just don’t trade the herd’s predictions……….
June 18th, 2009 at 9:12 pm
I think the guy could be right in his thinking. As a trend trader I will be looking to set up trades that go along with that line of thinking. That would be short stock index, long t-bond (for a while), and many commodities will be scorched in a stock collapse, long dollar, short british pound. That is my thinking going into the summer of 2009, but it could be wrong in which case I will get hit on my stop loss points. If the down trend does unfold like I think it could, we might not have a bank left to draw all those millios that we make out of. Just a thought.
June 19th, 2009 at 5:24 pm
On June 15th Jupiter went retrograde for 3 months.