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Archive for December, 2009

Winners Make Their Own Good Luck

While the article might be a few years old, it’s very relevant going forward.

Trend Following Translation to Portuguese

My book “Trend Following” will be published in Portuguese now. To all my new friends down in Brazil at BMF&BOVESPA thanks for pushing the issue after my summer visit! Obrigado!

That’s now 10 foreign translations:

Arabic
Chinese-Simplified
Chinese-Traditional
French
German
Japanese
Korean
Portuguese
Russian
Turkish

James Montier: To Be Happy

An excerpt from James Montier:

If you are after specific investment advice, stop reading now. We seek to explore one of Adam Smith’s obsessions: what it means to be happy. We also discuss why that’s important to investors, and how we can seek to improve our own levels of happiness. The list below shows our top ten suggestions for improving happiness.

  • Don’t equate happiness with money. People adapt to income shifts relatively quickly, the long lasting benefits are essentially zero.
  • Exercise regularly. Taking regular exercise generates further energy, and stimulates the mind and the body.
  • Have sex (preferably with someone you love). Sex is consistently rated as amongst the highest generators of happiness. So what are you waiting for?
  • Devote time and effort to close relationships. Close relationships require work and effort, but pay vast rewards in terms of happiness.
  • Pause for reflection, meditate on the good things in life. Simple reflection on the good aspects of life helps prevent hedonic adaptation.
  • Seek work that engages your skills, look to enjoy your job. It makes sense to do something you enjoy. This in turn is likely to allow you to flourish at your job, creating a pleasant feedback loop.
  • Give your body the sleep it needs.
  • Don’t pursue happiness for its own sake, enjoy the moment. Faulty perceptions of what makes you happy, may lead to the wrong pursuits. Additionally, activities may become a means to an end, rather than something to be enjoyed, defeating the purpose in the first place.
  • Take control of your life, set yourself achievable goals.
  • Remember to follow all the rules.

Facebook One on One: Career Advice

Here is a recent interchange I had with a new friend on my Facebook:

Ken:

I’ve actually been “following” you for a while on your email list and websites.

Me:

That’s kind of how it goes…see if the crazy trend following guy [me] is actually useful then maybe stick around!

Ken:

I was just talking with a hedge fund guy who recommended you.

Me:

That’s nice. Always good to hear.

Ken:

I don’t want to take up your time, I know you’re busy and you aren’t in the free advice business, but I’m looking to either go to business school or trading of some kind. I don’t have a lot of capital right now. What do you suggest a young 26 year old guy like me does? It’s brutal out there.

Me:

My books [Trend Following and The Complete TurtleTrader], if you have not seen, are a good start. Lot’s of stuff there very relevant to your situation. Business school? I started an MBA at 25. Would never do again today. Waste of time IMHO.

Ken:

I know I read that comment on your twitter, but starting a business or getting into trading with little capital isn’t so easy.

Me:

But business school just delays the inevitable struggle. If you really want to do it, you will do it. If you don’t want to do it, you won’t (or you will delay). Life is easy. We [humans] make it hard! That’s all the free advice for the night!

Ken:

At the very least maybe getting a business degree would secure a job at a investment firm and lead to eventually starting your own investment firm or business. No easy choices. But thanks Mike. I appreciate it! I will keep following you.

Me:

I would argue that your logic is right for some people, but mostly wrong for most people.

Ken:

Take care. I’ll contact you again when I’m rich!

Me:

Hey, you never know, insights from this end might help you get to the rich thing.

Ken:

What would the price of an hour of brutal real world advice for a struggling 26 year old guy like me for financial and career advice cost? I’m ready, I just need to know the right actions to take and not waste time.

Me:

I am going to post some stuff on consulting soon, but an hour would not be enough for me to feel like I helped or [enough time] for you to absorb [it all].

Recent Feedback

Martin writes:

I read about Salem Abraham in Michael Covel’s The Complete TurtleTrader and Trend Following books. Abraham’s story is unique and his credentials, especially his trading performance, are impeccable. So when I heard about the Market Wizard Mentoring DVD featuring this second generation “Turtle,” I couldn’t wait to see it. After seeing the DVD, I highly recommend it. It’s a tremendous experience to watch a casual 1.5 hour conversation as Michael Covel picks Salem Abraham’s brain. Abraham tells the story of how he got started and of his influences growing up. He shares the major lessons he learned along the way and offers his advice. He teaches about probability and risk. I was blown away! I was getting a lesson in probability from one of the top traders in the world! I think the best part of watching this DVD is not just the content but the nuances you get when you “read between the lines”: the way he thinks; his confidence and mindset towards trading. I had some high expectations and this DVD definitely delivers!

Bill writes:

My two cents on your next project: Make another film. Don’t get me wrong, your books are great. However, you are a great storyteller, and your no-bullshit attitude is a huge part of your appeal. It comes through much stronger on the camera as opposed to the printed page. Maybe do both a film and book and spin a book out of it? Enjoyed the NYIF webinar even without the video. Keep up the great work.

Joaquin writes:

I consider “Broke” to be one of the most brutally honest and accurate assessments of the financial services industry, media, crowd psychology, and investing/trading knowledge ever produced. As a risk professional with long-held similar views, I can’t begin tell you how much a voice like yours is needed to offset the traditional flawed investment paradigm that is spoon fed to the general public as wisdom. I have posted your Youtube preview on my website and am recommending your film and services to all of my clients, neighbors, and friends. Awesome job Mr. Covel! Keep speaking truth to power, you are doing an immeasurable public service by doing so.

Martin writes:

Although I had never heard of Kevin Bruce prior to watching Michael Covel’s movie, “Broke: the New American Dream”, the fact that he had earned over $100M caught my attention. The Kevin Bruce DVD offers a closer look at this extraordinary trader. A truly unique aspect of Bruce’s story is that he taught himself to trade and developed his own style of trading without the help of any real trading mentor. He researched his own methodology to identify trends while working at a gas station! His research gave him such conviction that his trading methodology would work. It’s clear that this confidence and conviction was a main component of his success. As he tells his story, analyzing his journey step by step, he offers little pearls of trading wisdom that you almost miss the first time watching the DVD. Clearly, this is one of those DVDs that you need to watch several times (while taking notes) to get the full benefit. It’s also extremely motivating to see someone, who started from scratch yet with the correct approach, reach such lofty heights of trading success.

Thanks!

Great Men Don’t Think Like This

A sad commentary on the times. Unfortunately for the ‘proletariat’ they don’t understand that asking for the so-called rich to be soaked will in the long run only see their lot in life continue to worsen.

When did laying asphalt sneak into the public consciousness as a noble endeavor? Why have colleges and higher education if digging ditches and pouring concrete are the new coveted jobs? I am not making fun of those jobs either. I am making fun of America’s pitiful desperation so expertly catered to on a near daily basis by politicians whose only goal is to be elected.

A Little Truth Tonic…Nice!

An excerpt from Bloomberg:

Economic growth is the best source of job growth. If growth is curtailed by soaring government debt, job creation will be sub-par as well. The government can’t keep shoveling out money to ‘create jobs,’ concoct some fictitious number of jobs that were created or saved and expect the public to buy it. Like the $787 billion stimulus, spending money to save money is not a winning strategy.

True that.

College Ripoff

This article is why I am in the business of educating traders. An excerpt:

Employers and career experts see a growing problem in American society – an abundance of college graduates, many burdened with tuition-loan debt, heading into the work world with a degree that doesn’t mean much anymore. The problem isn’t just a soft job market – it’s an oversupply of graduates. In 1973, a bachelor’s degree was more of a rarity, since just 47% of high school graduates went on to college. By October 2008, that number had risen to nearly 70%. For many Americans today, a trip through college is considered as much of a birthright as a driver’s license.

Nothing in college is unique. It’s the same stuff taught by the same professors year after year. It’s recycled waste. Some students, aware of the ripoff that they are paying for, make it here. And for that select group I guarantee that they will actually learn something that can be used to make money.

Less Is More

Another Review of Salem Abraham DVD

Here is a second recent review of my Salem Abraham DVD:

The Market Wizard DVD featuring Salem Abraham is an 89 minute discussion with one of the best trend following traders. The discussion is conducted by Michael Covel in Abraham’s hometown of Canadian located in northern Texas. This DVD is packed with great information for anyone who wants a better understanding of how Salem Abraham has become such a talented trader. Salem suggests a person should play to their strengths in trading and life. He says: “A duck ought to be in a swimming race and not a running race.” This piece of wisdom is very important in risk management. Salem commented about how significant the internet was on commerce. Trading can be done anywhere. You do not have to be located in a major city like Chicago to have a successful track record. Also mentioned, is the decrease in trading disputes due to electronic trading. The occurrence of an extreme event is something any veteran or wise trader respects. Salem talks about the importance of considering the extreme events into everyday risk management. For example, if all trades have a 99 percent probability of working favorably, betting all will eventually lead to broke. Therefore, it is necessary to consider all outcomes and know that there are things that can•t be planned for. It’s ok to lose, is an important and difficult thing to accept for many traders. Salem explains that a losing bet is not always a bad bet and a winning bet is not always a good bet. The degree of risk relative to reward will determine a great trade from a bad trade. Topics of discussion range from real estate to parenting with Salem. Watching this DVD was a great way to reaffirm the knowledge I have gained through my own personal experiences. When going through a draw down, having a great DVD like this may be helpful in sticking to the system. I recommend this DVD to everyone! Jonathan R. Keag

This DVD can be purchased individually or within one of our course options.

Another One Looking to Be Broke

I mentioned the other day why my film was titled “Broke: The New American Dream.” Short answer: many people actually want to be broke. Another great example of a guy who wanted to be broke? Meet Terrance Watanabe.

Review of Salem Abraham DVD

A recent review of my Salem Abraham DVD:

All I can say is that [Salem Abrahma DVD] was the rare opportunity to hear timeless advice from one of the country’s greatest traders who probably no one has heard of. I can’t tell you how much I enjoyed watching this interview. Salem…gets the point across. He tells you everything that you need to know to be a successful trader and investor. I love the point about passing up the good ideas and waiting for the great ideas (be patient). Don’t pay any attention to the news, let the market tell you what to do. Know your absolute worst case scenario and then plan on something happening that you never expect (risk management). If I had to sum up this interview in a phrase…Trading is all about risk and knowing your worst case loss at all times. I also loved the part when he spoke about passion, discipline, confidence and doing what you love to do. I can’t tell you how true this is. I am trapped in a job as a financial advisor and it is hard for me to get to work everyday, but I use my time to my advantage to back test trading ideas that I hope can make me the next Salem. I have a passion for trend following and your materials have helped in the greatest way. I need to watch this DVD again in order to fully take in all his wisdom and advice, but it sure was a great educational piece. I loved it! Phil S.

This DVD is here in our course options.

New Larry Hite DVD Available

I just received my final Larry Hite DVD today. This is an interview I personally conducted with Hite. The DVD is 65 minutes. It will be on my order page shortly, but I will also be offering the DVD on my Facebook page in an assortment of offers later today or tomorrow. The Facebook offer will include some complimentary copies too! If you are not connected with me on Facebook feel free to do so!

The Human Element

Why did some Turtle traders fail? An interesting powerpoint (PDF) covering the “human element” in trading answers that question in a big picture sort of way. An excerpt:

The Story of Sharon and Russ. Sharon and Russ watch CNBC all the time. They have all their money in the stock market. They trade frequently. They concentrate their portfolio in a few stocks…

Have a feeling where this ends?

Talking with Trend Follower Ken Tropin, Chairman, Graham Capital Management

A recent Ken Tropin profile in Barron’s.

 

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