“Just as Charles Ponzi needed donuts to turn back a suspicious crowd of investors, the Fed needs “donuts” in order to fill the bellies of the literally millions of investors worldwide who worry about the alarmingly large U.S. budget deficit and the impact that the U.S. debt dilemma could have on their Treasury holdings…Their collective buying has created what we believe to be a profit illusion with many investors mistakenly believing they can continuously reap profits from perpetually falling bond yields and rising bond prices, just as they have had opportunity to do over the past 30 years, amid the great secular bull market for Treasuries and the bond market more generally…For many reasons, this “duration tailwind” for Treasuries can’t last, particularly because the United States has reached the Keynesian Endpoint, where the last balance sheet has been tapped.”
Politically and economically I believe Gross will be right, but making a trading decision off this, when we all have limited money in our trading accounts, is problematic at best. Isn’t?
No one has any idea exactly which way any market will move, but that doesn’t stop smart people from predicting the future:
“…I believe that we are in the midst of one of the giant inflection points in economic history. This is likely the beginning of the end for the heroic growth spurt in population and wealth caused by what I think of as the Hydrocarbon Revolution rather than the Industrial Revolution. The unprecedented broad price rise would seem to confi rm this. Three years ago I warned of chain-linked crises in commodities, which have come to pass, and all without a fullyfledged oil crisis. Yet there is so little panicking, so little analysis even. I think this paradox exists because of some unusual human traits.”
That Jeremy Grantham line courtesy of pragcap.com.
Over the years I have come across a few well knowns in the trading industry who have contacted me under false names. They usually have something negative to say and prefer anonymity. The other night a big name came faking his identity and was caught. Why do people do this? The Internet is not anonymous.
A reader responded:
“Are people faking their names and being stupid because they know trend following works and don’t want the secret out?
Assorted reasons! They don’t like success or bluntness.
“I think you have pissing people off down to an art. I think that is awesome. BTW, I finally read that Linchpin book you recommended a month or two ago on your site…very good stuff.”
Thanks. Some people I piss off. Obviously, the right ones like what i do
“I like what you do to and you do it well. Its life changing work. Thank you.”
I like Michael Martin, but his first answer should have been: “Of course it is speculation!” The entire interview would have shifted to reality versus unreality:
“I too have read all your books and the breaking out blog has me e-mailing you on what you suggested to this blogger about getting connected to a trader (one of the greats). What would be your answer about going about this? I live in Chicago, home to futures trading. On a side note, a couple of years back, I had a question concerning a charting service mentioned in your book (for back testing), and I called. I was surprised that it was you who picked up the phone. You could not have been more helpful or nicer with your answer. I hope you have some words of wisdom concerning my most recent question posed in this e-mail.”
No short answer! Way i did it? Read Anthony Robbins’ book Unlimited Power. I read it in 1994. How I learned to approach people is in there. Also, read Seth Godin’s Linchpin. I will have more on this topic in the months to come in new books and online.
“Hello, I am not sure who in your organization to speak to about this…. If convenient, please forward my email to the agent within your fund who is responsible for private share placement. I have a private seller who wishes to sell 15 million of his shares of Facebook for $31 per share which includes all fees (for the broker and attorney). The seller is one of the original shareholders and this transaction will take place via his attorney. The new investor will have to be approved by FB shareholders, no ROFR process and they will need to have a clean record that will not jeopardize any possible IPO plans. Mr. Zuckerberg will be signing this deal. Thank you for your time and consideration. Fong Tse (fongtse@gmail.com)”
I would love to participate, but I have an appointment with Goldline.com today to sell my gold coins so I can buy Iraqi Dinars. How’s this for a compromise? If Zuckerberg calls me — I am in.
