It’s Hard to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future

Reason.com recently ran with a story about a new book that nails ‘prediction’ nonsense. An excerpt:

“[It] explains why so many of us keep falling for false prophesy: Humans beings hate uncertainty. [The author] offers myriad insights from research in cognitive psychology and behavioral economics that explains how and why we succumb to our desires for certainty. Whether sunny or bleak, convictions about the future satisfy the hunger for certainty. We want to believe. And so we do.”

THAT simple piece of text causes a whole class of people in the financial space to **** their pants.


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