The Beast Birthed from QE2

From pragcap.com:

“If there is one sure way to tell that the Fed has managed to create and nurture a speculative-led rally in the equity market, look no further than what is happening to investor-based leverage growth – it’s exploding off the page. Yes, that’s right. Debit balances at margin accounts skyrocketed $20.7 billion in February. Only two other times historically have we seen leverage rise so much so fast and both times it was during a manic phase – during the tech bubble of the late 1990s and the credit bubble just a short four years ago.”

Can’t make a system out of that, but heads up.

  • Riccardo Ronco

    well yes you can… when Margin Debt yoy is above 30% you have a top in the market soon

  • Riccardo Ronco

    forgot to add… as a trend follower you can trade the market medium-to-long term using margin debt with a 12-month moving average. If margin debt > its 12 month m.a. then buy stocks and sell when below.

  • AdamL

    I bet if you adjust the data above for inflation then the debt balance doesn’t look anything like as scary (or at least nowhere near a “manic peak”). None of it will help you make money though!

  • C. Maye

    Adjust for inflation meaning you are borrowing more worthless money…thanks


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