Archive for May, 2011

Searching for the Money Tree

An email in:

Michael, I am a new trader (Options trading). I currently trade from a Roth IRA account or paper trade and don’t have the funds to open a cash or margin account significant enough to overcome commissions and fees. I’m hoping you can direct me to mentors in trading that could help give me some seed money for my trading account that I can eventually return the money I make back to them. I see you from time to time on Fox News but I don’t have Fox Business in my channel lineup (costs more). In time though…Take care Michael, Paul T.

Thanks for writing Paul, but to be honest with you I am still looking for the money tree too. Haven’t found it yet. You might find some good ways to approach your start here.

Note: The real lesson with the famed TurtleTraders (book) was not that they were staked with initial capital, but that they could learn rules and profit.

There Is Only One Way to Prepare: Trend Following

From Carl Ichan:

“I do think that there could be another major problem. Now, will it happen next week, next year, i don’t know and certainly nobody knows, but i don’t think that the system is working properly. I really find it amazing that we’re almost back to where it was, where there’s so much leverage going on in the investment banks today. There’s just way too much leverage and way too much risk-taking, with other people’s money. I know a lot of my friends on Wall Street will hate my saying this, but the Glass Steagall thing or something like it wasn’t a bad thing. In other words, a bank should be a bank. Investment bankers should be investment bankers. Investment bankers serve a purpose, raising capital and whatever, but i think today, and i know a lot of people won’t like hearing this, what’s going on today, i think we’re going back in the same trap, and i will tell you that very few people understood how toxic and how risky those derivatives were. CDS were extremely risky the way they were used, and you look at Wall Street and you say, hey, they did it, but then you can’t really blame the Wall Street guys. You can’t blame a tiger. If you take a fierce man-eating tiger and put him in with a lot of sheep, you can’t blame the tiger for eating the sheep. And that’s the nature of the tiger. And that’s the nature of Wall Street. I’m not saying they’re bad but that’s their nature, and the government should regulate finance.”

Mark Mobius echoes Carl Icahn: “There is definitely going to be another financial crisis“:

“There is definitely going to be another financial crisis around the corner because we haven’t solved any of the things that caused the previous crisis.”

Trend following is the way to prepare.

Source:


Tip: zerohedge.com.

No Betting Off This…Please

Commercial traders foretell stock market moves? An excerpt from some recent crystal ball gazing:

“It just so happens that this indication of a big top due in early June coincides with the end of positive annual seasonality in June every year, and also the end of the Fed’s QE2 program. So the market is going to have two bullish factors (seasonality and POMOs) expiring at the same time that this chart’s indication of banking liquidity flows says that the stock market is about to enter an illiquid period. Yikes! The good news for the bullish case is that once that October low is put in, this eurodollar leading indication says we should see a really strong rally into the end of the year. But we’ll have to get through some rough months this summer before it is time to play that year-end rally.

Are you really waking up Tuesday to make this bet?

An even more adventurous crystal ball gaze? Check this one out. Predictive technical analysis, those two links, is not trend following.

“Has the Federal Reserve Ever Tried to Manipulate the Stock Market?”

Grayson has issues, and left Congress in disgrace, but boy is this conversation on target…

Mid-Week Reading

I am not betting off any of their wisdom, but there sure is some interesting stuff floating:

What Is a Degree Worth?

Jim Chanos on critics saying his position is wrong on China

Seriously Delinquent Homeowners Undermine Hopes of a Market Recovery

Reality Check With Rosenberg

Hedge-fund Secrets to Beat the Market

Gold is Not an Investment

Covel note: What today is an investment? All is speculation. Life is speculation.

Get Ready for a New Home Construction Boom! (Yeah, Sure)

Madoff Scam Revisited with New York Mets

I caught this article. An excerpt:

According to the magazine, Madoff investments were supposed to offset debt owed to players. When the Mets wanted to get rid of Bobby Bonilla after the 1999 season, they would have owed him $5.9 million. Instead, they decided to invest that money with Madoff at a return of 10 percent to 12 percent. They would pay Bonilla $1.2 million per year for 25 years, payments based on an annual interest rate of 8 percent. So in theory, had Madoff’s schemes not tanked, a seemingly horrible financial decision would have in fact created a net profit.

Madoff was a scam–and his investors should be afforded no excuses.

“So in theory, had Madoff’s schemes not tanked…”

Huh? It was a scam! Money was not invested with Madoff, it was Ponzi-schemed with Madoff.

Predicting the Unpredictable

I just saw the expression, “Predicting the Unpredictable!”

Run!

Richard Russell’s Predictive Analysis — No Go

Richard Russell is starting to aim bearish again. I like Russell’s general worldview, but his predictive technical analysis is not trend following. Too much subjectivity.

What Motivates Us: Dan Pink on the Surprising Science of Motivation

More:

Are There Trend Followers in [Whatever Country]?

Received an email from a young guy tonight asking if their were any trend followers in [whatever country]. I gave the names of some websites to review, but I also asked him why he wanted to know–knowing full well he was after a job. He replied:

“I’m trying to find a job at a trend following firm. I am a student right now. However, I don’t want to just settle for a job at a buy and hold investment firm. Down the road if things go as planned I would like to open my own firm. Is that realistic? Or would working for a trend following company be a safer bet? (P.S. I am still learning about it. I do not have my own system made up yet).”
Thanks, Justin V.

I politely said that it was not the route he should try and asked him if he had read the book “Linchpin” by Seth Godin. Bottom line, a “job” in the trend following space is a statistical dead end.

Just being blunt–go at it alone.

What Happens When Greece Defaults

IT IS WHEN, NOT IF. Financial markets merely aren’t sure whether it’ll be tomorrow, a month’s time, a year’s time, or two years’ time (it won’t be longer than that).

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