A Scam is a Brewin’

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Holy Grails | May 3rd, 2011

If you hear talk about geometry, astrology, or market turning points–reach for your wallet–you are about to be ripped off. If there is talk of cycle tops and bottoms, a scam is a brewin’.

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Jeff Waters

Michael

I know an intra-day trader who uses turning points to make a very good living. He finds points where the market is likely to continue in its current direction or reverse (at least temporarily). He sets a profit target that gives a typical 1:1 risk to reward ratio, and an 80% strike rate.

How do I know it’s not a scam? Because once people have purchased his system, he sends them daily screenshots showing his trades. And if you look on any chart, you’ll see his methods work time and again.

There’s more than one way to skin a cat…

Jeff
Patrick

Not related to trading.. when Gartner throws chicken bones..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8cw7mZju51k

Baba Vanga.. Nostradamus.. analysts..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PufriiMfj_M
Trader Jim

“He sets a profit target that gives a typical 1:1 risk to reward ratio, and an 80% strike rate.”

Yeah, that works great until it doesn’t work anymore.

I guarantee that if your friend is actually producing these stats he’s living on borrowed time with a 1:1 R/R ratio. You may think it’s skill… I call it luck that will run out sooner or later.

Also, since he’s an intraday trader and he’s sending out Daily screenshots of his trades, sounds to me like he’s showing you his trades after the fact. It’s pretty easy to have an “80% strike rate” that way LOL.
DGDye

Jeff,

I agree with what your trader does and know a few people who trade like that. With proper money management you can get consistent results with lower volatility than we TFers get.

But Trader Jim’s right…so often with trading programs for sale you get the “IF you had bought here, look at what you made.” Well, IF I’d picked the right numbers in the lottery, I would’ve won $100 million.

I always ask myself, “Why is this guy giving away the Coke recipe if it’s that good?” I know it’s a cliche….but honestly ask yourself the question.

Learn trend following now with our firm.

Books & Film by Michael Covel

- Trend Commandments Aggressive-take-no-prisoners trend following manifesto. Buy & holders might weep.
  
  Purchase | Reviews
- Trend Following Classic trend following bestseller with 100,000+ sold & now in 10+ languages.
  
  Purchase | Reviews
- The Complete TurtleTrader Nurture trumps nature in Wall Street's greatest rags to riches trading story. Bestseller #2.
  
  Purchase | Reviews
- The Little Book of Trading Behind the scenes part narrative & part interview in the spirit of Market Wizards.
  
  Purchase | Reviews
- Broke: The New American Dream Covel's directorial debut: trend following meets the financial crisis. Winners tell how (DVD).
  
  Purchase | Reviews

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Michael Covel serves as president of Trend Following™, a privately owned research firm. His trend following books include The Little Book of Trading (2011), Trend Commandments (2011), The Complete TurtleTrader (2009, 2007; bestseller), and the classic Trend Following (2009, 2007, 2005, 2004; bestseller). Covel's books have been translated into 10+ languages. His first film, a documentary, is Broke: The New American Dream (2009). Learn why.

Books & Film by Michael Covel

- Trend Commandments Aggressive-take-no-prisoners trend following manifesto. Buy & holders might weep.
  
  Purchase | Reviews
- Trend Following Classic trend following bestseller with 100,000+ sold & now in 10+ languages.
  
  Purchase | Reviews
- The Complete TurtleTrader Nurture trumps nature in Wall Street's greatest rags to riches trading story. Bestseller #2.
  
  Purchase | Reviews
- The Little Book of Trading Behind the scenes part narrative & part interview in the spirit of Market Wizards.
  
  Purchase | Reviews
- Broke: The New American Dream Covel's directorial debut: trend following meets the financial crisis. Winners tell how (DVD).
  
  Purchase | Reviews