Long Only Commodities?

An excerpt from Yahoo:

The manic ride of silver, continuing its recent slide today, could be an indication that there’s trouble ahead for the stock market, says Todd Harrison, founder & CEO of Minyanville.com and author of the soon to be published The Other Side of Wall Street. “There are a few key takeaways here,” Harrison tells the Breakout Brotherhood. ” First, volatility of this magnitude is not positive, and second, commodity volatility typically precedes volatility in stocks.” Of course, Harrison’s call to short silver was done in plain view more two weeks ago in a Minyanville post; he’s not claiming victory or a top in silver but rather that the poor man’s gold simply looked to have gotten ahead of itself. “Silver is an unintended consequence of the synthetic sweetener —- or whatever you call it —- that has been injected into this marketplace,” Harrison says, adding that “commodities have never been a safe haven over the long term.”

The last line implies that being long only or buying and holding commodity futures is a strategy. Commodity futures traded with trend following have been one of the best trading methods developed–ever.

  • Patrick

    What sticks in this interview is “have discipline and humility”.. maybe the only good advice he had.

  • Patrick

    OK.. this is going to preposterous side of affairs..

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cme-hikes-silver-margins-17-4th-hike-8-trading-days

    whatever.. trend is your friend and COMEX enemy. ;P

  • Patrick
  • Sandwah

    “commodities have never been a safe haven over the long term” is maybe the most ignorant statement ever. one, there is plenty of evidence of TF guys that have made money thru up and down markets over decades as mike so well displays. two, we’ve had a farm in the family for about 200 years and we grow cotton and soybeans, last time i checked they were commodities, and it has produced income annually through a couple depressions, several market meltdowns, two domestic wars, two world wars, etc.

  • Patrick
  • Andrew

    yes the CME is in pure panic mode and this BS bear raid of silver is just that BS. So much corruption and blatant manipulation going on in the silver market right now. I hope the Comex defaults, better yet, there is only 33 Mil worth of silver in the Comex lets hope a large hedgie like Paulson & Co comes in and says I will buy every last oz at 38 and calls their F-in bluff! THAT would be priceless

  • DGDye

    Must be spring…time for the conspiracy theorists to come out.

    Silver was giving plenty of warning of an upcoming correction to anyone that was paying attention.

    As for the increased margin requirements…if you put down $25,000 to buy a $100,000 house, is it a kick against the little guy if he’s not allowed to put $25,000 down against the $1 million house? I know the government thought so about 9 years ago, and we know how THAT story ended.

    The new margin requirements were put in place in response to a massive increase in silver prices and a massive influx of small orders from unsophisticated buyers. It’s not the same price it was a year ago and the media was drawing a bunch of neophytes into silver futures who had no business being there.

    Fact is that if you followed the trend and the correction in silver you made enough money that the new margin requirement is irrelevant. And if not, What were you doing? If ever there was an obvious trend, silver was it.


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