Volatility Is Not the New Nornal, But Rather the Old Always

Check out the last few years of Dunn Capital’s WMA trend trading performance out. How does the performance for March and April 2011 make you feel?

Think about it.


NOTE: No one can train you to be ‘that’ exact performance, but our firm can train you as close as possible.

Disclaimers:

Our firm can not promise you will earn like returns of traders, charts or examples (real or hypothetical) mentioned. All past performance is not necessarily an indication of future results. Data presented is for educational purposes. This information is not designed to be used as an invitation for investment with any adviser profiled. All data on this site is direct from the CFTC, SEC, Yahoo Finance, Google, IASG and disclosure documents by managers mentioned herein. We assume all data to be accurate, but assume no responsibility for errors, omissions or clerical errors made by sources.

HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

  • jad tawil

    He is down about 5% for May 11.

    Volatility itself is not that relevant really.

    Only when you are managing money for others, then you come up with useless measures of returns as a function of volatility where you will see the likes of Niederhoffer, Meriwether (LTCM) and Madoff do so well….until they blow up that is.

    Skew is more important if you where to use “a” measure of quality of returns.

    But at the end of the day, how much has Dunn returned over a period of 5 years? And how much have you made “investing” in the stock market for the same period?…ask the CNBC anchors.

  • Rob

    Easy to have great risk adjusted returns when you hide the risk in the tails.

  • Sven

    Please be sure and sent us an update on his month and YTD when May is over. I find it slightly amusing you elect to highlight with timely emails when CTA’s are doing well yet I don’t recall any timely updates when they are getting steam-rolled either on a monthly or yearly basis.

  • http://michaelcovel.com Michael Covel

    Sven, since 2004 every one of my books has listed month by month performance numbers of trend followers. That means all the positive and all the negative. Additionally, this summer two new books are coming that also feature all the positive and all the negative. Do you want to reassess your criticism? Or did you just want to vent–truth be damned?

  • http://michaelcovel.com Michael Covel

    BTW, the point was to show volatility across 2 months, not tout 2 months of performance. Thought that was obvious…

  • Sven

    BTW, why did you omit Dunn’s 03,04 and 05 returns and cherry pick 06 through Apr. 11?

  • http://michaelcovel.com Michael Covel

    The point of this one blog post — was not historical performance. It was to show month to month volatility. In your working conspiracy theory how do you account for me putting every month of Dunn’s performance in my books ‘Trend Following’ and ‘Trend Commandments’?

    If you look close…there is a guy hiding behind the tree over there.

  • Clint Stevens

    Lots of folks today are caught up in illict sex and illegal drugs, and living life well beyond their means because it FEELS GOOD. The returns from March to April would not feel good, but Dunn does the right thing over time (inspite of how he feels) and therefore gets terrific results over time. I think Bruce in one of your DVD’s said that real TFing can often be down right boring.

  • Larry

    I thought it was obvious also that the meaning of the post was not that Dunn had a good April…it was that good traders and good systems traders, will have sizeable swings from time to time.

  • Trader Jim

    Sven says: “BTW, why did you omit Dunn’s 03,04 and 05 returns and cherry pick 06 through Apr. 11?”

    Yes Sven, that’s what we all do here. Cherry pick our wins and hide our losses.

    You’re the one who has finally figured it out… trend following is just a huge pack of lies predicated upon only focusing on large winning trades and ignoring the losses. Congratulations!

  • D. June

    I just don’t understand the love for Dunn. There are so many other trend followers with much better risk adjusted returns. And yes I know you can’t eat risk adjusted returns, but the point is after a 40 to 50% drawdown, you’re toast.

    How about focusing more on Tactical Investment and Blue Trend and less on Dunn?

  • D. June

    And how about PJM Capital also. Peter Matthews was with Larry Hite at Mint. Would like to see more about his work.

  • DGDye

    Michael asks how March and April makes us feel. How many people who started trading in March with Dunn’s system would’ve gone back to the drawing board to try yet another system after March’s poor performance?

    I did it myself a few years ago until reading TF for a third time and realizing that poor returns from a good system are good results — eventually the odds are in your favor.

    Difficult lesson to learn when you’re watching your money get flushed down the toilet.

  • William F.

    Sven….. why do you insist on concentrating on the splinter in their eye and ignoring the log that is in your eye?

  • Todd Miller

    @DGDye,
    Spot on! When new trend followers start out, testing different market baskets, parameters, etc, they (and that means me) tend to look at beginning to end and say, “wow, that’s a lot of money”. But, I think it’s important to look at the monthly, or even daily results for no other reason but to internalize the feeling of going thru that roller coaster.

    The thing I admire about Dunn is not so much the money he’s made, but his iron gut.

  • Michael Covel

    Druz and Hite are featured in my “Little Book of Trading”…coming summer…

  • http://michaelcovel.com Michael Covel

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