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Buy now on Amazon.

If in Chicago stop on by Tuesday June 21. I will be moderating a panel with Ed Seykota and Larry Hite–two of the great interviews from the classic book “Market Wizards.” Online registration is closed, but onsite registration for our panel alone is available.

America flirts with a fate like Japan’s. An excerpt:

The stalling of the US recovery raises big, scary questions. After a recession, this economy usually gets people back to work quickly. Not this time. Progress is so slow, the issue is not so much when America will return to full employment but what ‘full employment’ will mean by the time it does.

The conversation needs to stop being about “jobs“. It should be about making money.

Eurozone Breakup

Dodd-Frank Precious Metal Trading Prohibition Could Make Hedge Fund FX Trading Illegal

Send in the Magicians. An excerpt:

With the aforementioned end of quantitative easing, it’s tough to see where any thrust is going to come from. As Northern Trust’s redoubtable Paul Kasriel and his very able subaltern, Asha Bangalore, observe in a recent commentary, “The Federal Reserve is responsible for all of the combined Fed and commercial-bank credit created since the launching of the second round of quantitative easing at the beginning of November 2010.” And they add that “unless commercial banks miraculously crank up credit creation, combined Fed and bank credit will dry up.”

You can’t trade successfully off this stuff, but maybe it makes a little sense to be aware of current economic chaos…in case of riots!

Senator Sanders declares:

“Do the American people want us to stand up to oil speculation? Of course.”

Idiot.

Lao Tzu was wise:

“A good traveler has no fixed plan, and is not intent on arriving.”

“If you look to others for fulfillment, you will never be truly fulfilled.”

“When I let go of what I am, I become what I might be.”

“People in their handlings of affairs often fail when they are about to succeed. If one remains as careful at the end as he was at the beginning, there will be no failure.”

“Respond intelligently even to unintelligent treatment.”

“If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.”

“The power of intuitive understanding will protect you from harm until the end of your days.”

“When you are content to be simply yourself and don’t compare or compete, everybody will respect you.”

Nice writing:

LeBron James wants all of our adulation — indeed, he expects it, nearly demands it — and none of our criticism. It’s the inevitable result of our insistence on godding up every athlete who shows precocious talent. (And yes, guilty as charged.) What happens is this: The separation grows so drastically so quickly that some of these guys immediately see the world as consisting of two separate universes: Themselves and Everybody Else.

And Everybody Else, sad to say, is dirt.

Magic Johnson said something profound in the postgame show. The topic was LeBron, of course, and his tweeted comments suggesting that he didn’t win a title this year because God decided it simply wasn’t yet his time. (Doesn’t it seem that hiding under God’s skirt in times of failure has become the refuge of those who refuse to accept responsibility?)

Clearly exasperated, Magic said what James should have said, and I’m paraphrasing: I’m sorry to all my fans. I’m going to work hard this offseason to get back here and hopefully win it next time around.

And then Magic looked at the camera for a second longer than usual, as if to say, “How bleeping hard is that?” James is the perfect case study of the I’m-Somebody-And-You’re-Not phenomenon. He came of age in what might become known as The Entitlement Generation. I have a friend who owns a company that hires many recent college graduates, and he says the self-esteem of the 22- to 28-year-old set is both astounding and misguided. They’ve been raised to believe they should be overflowing with personal pride — not a horrible concept in moderation — and they’ve passed the elementary-school classes to prove it .They’ve grown up in a world of parents who worship them rather than discipline them, and they’ve rarely been given honest, frank assessments of their talents. Everybody is good at everything, nobody loses, nobody fails, nobody should be called to account for their inadequacies.

James is the phenomenon in the fun-house mirror. He’s been godded up since he hit puberty, and he will continue to live a life of vast luxury and significant professional success. It would be stupid to think he won’t ever win a championship, but it’s equally stupid to think it will come without some serious alterations to his mindset. Because you can talk about the Mavericks’ zone defense (it was confounding) and Dirk Nowitzki’s persistence (he was everything James was not), but in the final analysis LeBron’s failings looked to be failings of character, not talent.

It’s funny, because as I was watching him speak in the press conference before he broadly dismissed everyone who isn’t him, a thought struck me for the first time: It would absolutely stink to be LeBron James right now.

Applies to trend following trading too.

“Trend Commandments” is set for a July 2011 release from FT Press.

“An outstanding book [Trend Commandments] for anyone who wants to become rich by trading markets. Today, government regulations and fiscal and monetary policies are badly distorting financial markets. Covel accurately explains why, in this ‘manipulated’ financial environment, you should never expect markets to move as you wish or expect. Rather, disregard your fundamental beliefs and simply follow the trend. Highly recommended!”
Marc Faber
Managing Director, Marc Faber Ltd.
Editor, ‘Gloom Boom & Doom Report’

“If you are even thinking of a career in trading, put down all the other books. Buy this one [Trend Commandments]. Read it. Now you can start your career.”
James Altucher
Managing Director, Formula Capital

“Fire up the barbecue. Michael Covel skewers the sacred cows of Wall Street with tasty bite-sized bits of the truth about what it really takes to succeed in trading and life. Wide-ranging, irreverent, revealing, eminently quotable, and right on the money.”
Charles Faulkner
Market Wizard Trading Coach

“A rapidly moving, non-technical, and outside-the-box effort that smartly captures the essentials of trend following.”
Peter Borish
Chairman and CEO, Computer Trading Corp

“Michael Covel’s Trend Commandments is full of practical wisdom in bite-size portions on the benefits of trend trading–written in a straightforward storytelling format. It’s definitely one to add to your financial bookshelf.”
David Stendahl
Signal Financial Group

“Michael Covel is the very best at explaining the concepts of successful trend following in plain English. I’m certain you’ll be a successful trader if you follow the ideas he outlines in Trend Commandments. This book (and his previous two!) are required reading for new employees in my office.”
Steve Sjuggerud
DailyWealth

“Investors have experienced two bear markets in the last decade. This has led to rising volatility, uncertainty, and investor angst. For some it has been a lost decade, but for trend traders it has been a decade of opportunity. Trend Commandments helps you focus on what matters most: the trend of the markets, whether up or down. You can profit from either. Trend Commandments is essential reading for those who have the desire to thrive and survive in an era of fast-paced trending markets.”
Jim Puplava
CEO, Chief Investment Strategist, PFS Group

“Buy and hold has been a difficult investment system for investors for a decade. In Trend Commandments, Covel challenges readers to think differently and question their beliefs about market ‘truths’ ingrained in them for years. Forewarned, you just may never see the world the same way again.”
Mebane Faber
Cambria Investment Management

“Covel’s Trend Commandments offers a breezy rumination on what is right about trend following and what is wrong about conventional trading approaches.”
Jack Schwager
Author of Market Wizards and Schwager on Futures series

Been a while since I posted this, but it never gets old:

In 2011 we get Lady Gaga and back in the day they got Ginger Rogers. I vote for cute Rogers over creepy Gaga.

Rogers might have keen insight, but do you?

Which of the Four Are Getting in the Way?

The Sickness Beneath the Slump

Shiller: More Expectations Theory, Less Efficient Market Hypothesis

Felix Zulauf: Structural Problems Remain

How to Write a Sentence and How to Read One

One Reason Why Humans Are Special and Unique

If You’re Going to Work…

You have to do something different these days. Investing/trading like the “old” days? Not wise.

Time magazine makes one case.

An excerpt to consider when thinking about fundamental views:

Bullshit baffles brains. It’s that simple. This is one of the foundations of all workplace theories and it applies equally well to life [and trading]. How is this so? It’s very similar to the ‘offense is the best defense’ method. When you talk bullshit, it’s like you’ve thrown a baseball at someone–it is up to them to consider what you’ve said, i.e. to catch the ball. It is up to them to understand or respond what you’ve said. If your words are made up of some big meaningless words which take your audience time to understand, then you’ve achieved your goal. Most people, who do not want to appear foolish, will happily nod and agree with you just to be seen that they’ve understood to avoid embarrassment. A bit of practice of talking crap and train yourself to reinforce people’s agreement by your own body language (like holding eye contact and gently nodding) will grant you a even more positive response. Of course, the voice level and everything will all come into play. Basically–sound convincing. Like so many other researches have found, actual words are a small part of communication. The body language, appearance, way of talking, etc all form a part of the overall communication process. The paced, non repetitive, confusing but yet convincing words are simply window dressing. In summary? practice your speech pattern to sound convincing then talk random crap which sound convincing while holding eye contact and nod knowingly.

More:

Consider the 2008 claim made by analysts at the investment bank Goldman Sachs that oil prices could surge beyond $200 per barrel in as little as six months. In fact, in as little as six months, the price of petroleum had fallen to $34 per barrel. Whether sunny or bleak, convictions about the future satisfy the hunger for certainty we want to believe. And so we do.

How many use these techniques everyday–and are actually respected? Quite a few.

Note: source.