No Convert
I alerted “Rose” to some of the discussion on this site regarding her initial post:
Michael: You have apparently chosen Mike Shell to speak on your behalf to uphold the nonsense you put out in your January 10th podcast, so I will assume Shell’s words are yours. It appears that you both have decided to deny the existence of the philosophical field of causality, cause and effect is not interesting to either of you. Taking your point of view, I should not wonder why it is colder in January as compared to July, not study past weather reports of January in past years, and on that basis not have the useless information regarding the need to buy a winter coat. I should expect the temperature to change randomly, so that it could be freezing in July or September and I should just deal with it at the moment, follow the trend. Of course you would find the cause of seasons in North America, the tilted spinning axis of the earth, useless information, you claim not to be curious people. On that basis, all of modern medicine and other sciences which seek to find the why, would be useless information to you both also. If I had a heart attack I should not be curious about the cause and change my diet and quit smoking. That I should bear with it and wait for the next heart attack would probably be your advice. In the markets, on the first Friday of each month at 8:30 AM EST I should not expect or worry about the possibility of huge volatile spikes in the US dollar due to the Non Farm Payroll announcement, not seek to understand the cause of the price spike by reviewing past first Friday data reports so I could be prepared to avoid losses in my account. Instead I should just deal with it in the moment. This insanity that you propound does not require any further response or comments from myself. Michael, you do wonderful research on traders like The Turtles, Simons, Henry, and I enjoy reading your articles, research and your newsletter. Your work is wonderful. Are you not trying to learn the cause of these traders successes, the cause of their effect of success? I am prepared for winter being aware of the history of the seasons, having studied the past historical weather reports. I have a nice pine fire going in the fireplace here in the old farm house, and am looking for more fuel for the fire, anything that would burn well. Aha, here is a book, I can feed to the fire, titled “Trend Following”. Goodbye, Rose.
Who has a good explanation that can win Rose over? Or is this truly a blind spot. I knew when I wrote “Trend Following” a few years back that her mindset was going to be a tough obstacle to overcome. While I appreciate that she likes my work, she also seems to miss the message.
