Strange Piece of Miscommunication
Feedback in from William L. on this post:
Hi Michael, What a strange piece of miscommunication you have on your site! The expression “talking at cross purposes,” applies here, I think. Rose believes that curiosity is important, and why shouldn’t she? But that’s a bit tangential to your message, which only has to do with trading. There, I think, might be the problem. To continue the weather analogue, I do not wish to study meteorology to inform my purchase of a winter coat. Furthermore, judging by the success of television weathermen to accurately predict today’s temperature, I’m not sure it would be worth it. Likewise, when an economist takes their best shot at predicting the price change in a currency pair, I take it with the same grain of salt. I’d rather just trade on price action, because it involves far less effort, is consistent, and its success doesn’t depend on me being clever that day. However, that is not to deny that research in the area of economics isn’t interesting. It can be very interesting, it just doesn’t make me any money. Will
More feedback from Michael H.:
I could very well be wrong but my sense is that for someone like Rose the blind spot will always be there. An epiphany could happen but it likely won’t. I don’t mean this to be derogatory towards Rose. If she has a way to make money with whatever her approach is, then good for her. That said, she appears to be awfully committed to vast amounts information to try and explain cause and effect. I have to admit that her most recent retort was difficult for me to follow and it’s possible I completely misunderstood the point she was trying to make. However, in one passage Rose states:
“Taking your point of view, I should not wonder why it is colder in January as compared to July, not study past weather reports of January in past years, and on that basis not have the useless information regarding the need to buy a winter coat.”
I’m admittedly not the brightest bulb on the tree, but as a life long resident of the mid-west, I have never once consulted past weather reports or other information to ascertain the need for a winter coat. If it’s cold, I wear the damn coat. As it relates to the markets, if price is moving higher, I am probably inclined to buy that market. What are historical weather reports going to tell me about today’s weather that I cannot learn for myself by standing outside on a winter day for about 10 seconds or so? Similarly, what are all of Rose’s sources of information going to tell her about market price that price itself is not already telling her? I’ve re-read what I typed above about 5 times now. I know what I am trying to say but fear that I did not articulate my point very clearly. In summary, Rose’s blind spot will likely always be there. Good luck trying to change her views.
