Michael Covel is the author of the internationally bestselling book Trend Following

A Missing Turtle Found in Plain Sight

January 30, 2008

One Turtle I was unable to find during my book research process is 2nd from the left:

Today he is an accomplished guitarist specializing in latin, acoustic and Klezmer music (sample). He is the only original Turtle currently with a MySpace.com page. Is he trading still? As I mention in my book I was told by one Turtle, who still manages money publicly for clients, that Svoboda probably has the best returns for any Turtle since 1988. From YouTube:

How many students at San Diego State realized that day the guy playing guitar in the court yard knew more about trading and making money than the entire business faculty at the university?

Houston’s G.M. Is a Revolutionary Spirit in a Risk-Averse Mind

January 29, 2008

Another numbers guy takes the lead.

Bank's Billions Burnt in 10 Days

Nick Leeson never really left us.

Economics of Recruiting

A new way to predict where top prospects will end up. Interesting research.

A Rich Person’s Definition of Rich

January 27, 2008

A net worth of $1.4 million will put you in the top 5% of Americans, but what does that really mean?

Young Millionaires Are More Diversified Than Old

A new study from Northern Trust shows millionaires in their 30s are better diversified across all asset classes than millionaires in their 50s and 60s are.

Inside Dealmakers' Brains

Scientists think the new field of neuroeconomics can explain some business behavior, perhaps even distinguish rational from irrational decisions. Are some people's brains hardwired to run companies or to make deals?

On $11 an Hour, Jersey Man Made Millions

An excerpt:

Paul Navone is one of those quiet millionaires next door. His friends had no idea he had money until he started giving it away -- $1 million to a college and another $1 million to a prep school. The 78-year-old retiree never made more than $11 an hour while working in the New Jersey mills, according to a story by Joe Logan in the Philadelphia Inquirer, and to this day Navone buys his clothing at thrift stores, and doesn't have a TV or a phone.

More.

The Limits of History

A reminder of what can happen when there is an answer for everything.

Do As Told

January 26, 2008

I was in the local Micro Center today buying a keyboard. As I made the purchase the young guy at the counter asked me for my email for my $49 purchase. I said "no" bluntly. I then asked him what percentage of people actually give their email. He livened up and said, "Oh last night we were at 71%." How did we as a society become so easily manipulated? What are the larger ramifications?

Tom Cruise and Crowd (Cult) Behavior

First the video of the year:

More from commander Cruise:

The parody:

The anonymous group of hackers now out to end Scientology:

Scientology presents one simple example why so many people will never understand markets. If your core belief revolves around these types of views how could you ever accept the rational and logical view of the markets needed to make money?

Your Economy Isn't As Bad as This One

January 25, 2008

What happens when second life has a second life?

Food for Psych Thought

Just how representative are the people who volunteer for psychology experiments? Interesting.

Why Trends Persist

January 24, 2008

Trends exist and persist. Why? There are many, many reasons. One perhaps at first appearing off topic reason for why trends in the markets will persist can be found in the halls of DC government. Do you think the people who work for this government and or the people who run this government are rational, logical, thoughtful people? If this is how they run their workplace, how they run their government, do you think these same folks turn around and make rational, logical, thoughtful choices when it comes to their investments? I could pick any number of human behavior examples (and I am not mocking their porn surfing), but if so many people can't even get going in a straight line when it comes to their daily job, if the leaders are not even in tune with what the employees are even doing, it's not hard to understand why issues in behavioral finance will persist.

Fed Folly

I admit when it comes to commentary on the Fed's actions of recent I am lazy in a sense. It's just too easy to let Ritholtz say it because frankly he says it so damn well:

Was it a misunderstanding of their mandate, inexperience, or just plain hubris? Regardless, it took only 2 days to learn just how ill-considered the Fed's emergency market rescue plan was: To wit, a fraudulent series of losses led to a major European bank unwinding a huge trade: Societe Generale Reports EU4.9 Billion Trading Loss. SG's $7.1Billion dollar unwinding led to panicked futures selling on Monday and Tuesday. Hence, we quickly learn what sheer folly and utter irresponsibility it is for the Fed to use its limited ammunition to intervene in equity prices. Their panicky rate cute were not to insure the smooth functioning of the markets, but rather, to guarantee prices. As we have been saying for the past two days, this is not the Fed's charge. They are supposed to be maintaining price stability (fighting inflation) and maximizing employment (supporting growth) -- NOT guaranteeing stock prices. I guess the European Central Bank has it easier: Their only charge is to fight inflation: "maintain price stability, safeguarding the value of the euro." Tuesday's panicked 75 basis cut will prove to be an historical embarrassment, a blot on the Fed for all its days. Failing to understand what their responsibilities are is bad enough; allowing themselves to be bossed around by Futures traders is inexcusable. And, having been rewarded for their past tantrums, the market will now be screaming for another 75 bps next week. As Rick Santelli appropriately observed, the Pavlonian training is now complete.

One of the posters to his comment offered:

Barry the Fed had to do it. The market was almost certain to crash. All the baby boomer's retirement money would have went up in smoke and it almost certainly would have caused depression.

That's where some are in their understanding of markets? The boomers better get ready to fill those Walmart greeter positions.

Makes the Sad Point in First Few Minutes

January 23, 2008

Feeding the Lion

You feed the lions. They have not been fed for a long time. You throw them some monster steaks. They swallow those whole and look back at you with their mouths wide open. More rate cuts (steaks)?

Beg, Whine, Cry

I am not really sure what to make of this. Sure, the cute, try to be funny part is clear, but at the end of the day no one gets ahead regardless of their circumstance by begging and whining.

Ritholtz Nails It

Sums it up doesn't he?

German Interview and Cover

An interview conducted for the German magazine Der Aktionär can be found here (PDF). The cover of the German translation of "The Complete TurtleTrader":

Does This Mean Things Are Bad?

January 21, 2008

This passage caught my eye and sarcasm:

That means the FTSE 100 has now fallen by around 10 per cent in the last 10 days, by around 15 per cent over the last month and is well on the way to being off 20 per cent since its most recent high of 6754 in July - before the world's banking system was sent spiraling. It is also the worst start to the year for the stock market since records began in 1936. "I smell the acrid stench of fear and uncertainty," said markets commentator David Buik of BGC Partners. European markets also tumbled.

True to Life Pygmalion Story

While I believe "The Complete TurtleTrader means different things to different people, it is very interesting to see the diverse feedback. A review posted by a reader:

Covel's true to life Pygmalion story is an inspiration to all of us, Aside from everything that all the other reviewers are mentioning...I'll add this. If you're a trader or investor who ever loses money because of wrong decisions that are triggered by emotional responses to events in the markets, then you should read "The Complete Turtle Trader." It will educate and inspire you in a far more profound and visceral way than 99% of the trading psychology books that are on the market.

A more refined nature versus nurture take over Trading Places!

Feedback from Original Turtles

Feedback in about "The Complete TurtleTrader" from six original Turtles trained by Richard Dennis. By and large the Turtles seem to be of few words when it comes to reviews!

"I did enjoy the book...I hope it's doing well for you."
Turtle #1

"The book was wonderful..."
Turtle #2

"Liked it. Congratulations on a job well done."
Turtle #3

"Book is very good...thank you for going for the truth and objectivity."
Turtle #4

"Nice book."
Turtle #5

"All in all, not bad. I wish it had never been done and I wish I were not in it, but I know that you were definitely going to do it, so I figured I would try to get the truth out as much as possible. By and large, it worked that way."
Turtle #6

Top 10: 13 Weeks Straight

January 20, 2008

"The Complete TurtleTrader" made The Straits Times (Singapore) top 10 bestsellers in non-fiction for the 13th week in a row.

Human Action

January 19, 2008

It is much easier to read the hard copy of his book "Human Action", but an online free version of Ludwig von Mises' classic treatise can be found here. This is the foundation of all proper economic thought. Of course, every few years those who know better, those who profess to care more, come along with means and methods not rooted in Mises' work. The alternatives always fail.

Unintended Consequences

An interesting take from the Freakonomics guys.

Being Right Can Be Wrong

January 17, 2008

Feedback from Jack Zaner:

Re: Rose and her blind spot: I suppose if I wanted to know the temperature outside, I could consult meteorological experts, research climate trends, develop statistical models or I could just look at the damn thermometer (price). Some people would rather be right than rich.

Feedback From Vermont on the Human Side

Feedback:

Mr. Covel, my compliments. I found your work on the Turtles admirable in so many ways. If you get the chance, preferably on a cold day, do visit the Shelburne Museum along the shores of Lake Champlain in Vermont. I was struck not by the beauty of the place but by just how tough the American settlers were to survive winter, rocks, childbirth and disease in isolation, grueling farm labor, poverty and misfortunes of all kinds. The size and weight of their crude implements alone were intimidating to this softie of the 21st century. I guess you can never tell what your writing can trigger in the mind of a reader. As a 8 year commodities position trader, now retired pathologist, I kept asking myself how could you have observed, interviewed and then written a book that not just captured a complex technical story but at the same time said so much truth about trading and life. But somehow, there it was every time I turned the page. My son and I are carefully reviewing those pages to see what we can add or adapt to our trading approach. Along the way we are re-living our journey together. Thanks for having the talent and toughness to tell the tale so well.

For me, as an author on the subject of the Turtles, this feedback struck me. It hit me because this reader's feedback is how I feel. Yes, my book is about trading, making money and the right kind of technique, but it was the human side of the story that really influenced me.

Why People Believe Weird Things About Money

This is such a sad commentary on what we know about money!

What Does Goldman Know That We Don't?

From Michael Lewis an interesting take on Goldman Sachs.

Every Rose Has A Thorn

January 16, 2008

I think this does it for Rose. She might have the last word!

Michael: You and your feedback artists apparently feel the need to defend your insecurity, which is being unsure about the blocking out of all trading information other than pure observation of price movement. Trend Following is an important and wonderfully valuable tool, but adding fundamentals, technicals and trader's needs producing a total picture would seem to create a higher value. As for the feedback from Michael H…Why did he buy a winter coat? He obviously had it around before winter arrived. He just happened to buy it because it was stylish? Rather he knew winter was coming from weather reports, past history. Somewhere he heard from a friend, or the radio or TV, or the newspaper, information on the existence of winter, and so in preparation for the cold weather, he bought a winter coat. Are you otherwise going to tell me that he had no winter coat, then he stepped outside, felt the cold temperature, waived his hand, went with the trend, and created a winter coat from the 3 feet of snow he found, with no previous information on cold weather coming? Michael, I am not missing your message as you claim repeatedly. The Trend Following methods you propound, just working from the price action, are extremely important, but don't you and your feedback cohorts have a clue that your message is incomplete? Not only does Trend Following work, but the trends are set up by macroecon events, government data announcements from all over the globe, rumors, news events, oil prices, gold prices, and on and on. Wait and see if a trend actually develops from Bernanke's or Trichet's remarks, and then dive into your Trend Following methods. Do you prefer to close your ears and mind, watch the charts, and be shocked and stoked to action when prices spike suddenly, and you must try to protect your account? You must live on valium. And then the feedback from William L., probably a nice guy, but soooo narrow minded. Is he a watchmaker? The weatherman has to predict the temperature to the correct degree? If you tune in three network weathermen in the morning, they all have different temperatures. But the message is generally the same, and helpful, it will start to snow at midnight, maybe not 12 inches, but maybe 3 inches. So all the data from government agencies may not agree, they are not making watches either, but you can see a picture, and understand where there might be a market force to create a trend that you can follow with your trend following method. Good luck, …and good night. Rose.

Strange Piece of Miscommunication

January 15, 2008

Feedback in from William L. on this post:

Hi Michael, What a strange piece of miscommunication you have on your site! The expression "talking at cross purposes," applies here, I think. Rose believes that curiosity is important, and why shouldn't she? But that's a bit tangential to your message, which only has to do with trading. There, I think, might be the problem. To continue the weather analogue, I do not wish to study meteorology to inform my purchase of a winter coat. Furthermore, judging by the success of television weathermen to accurately predict today's temperature, I'm not sure it would be worth it. Likewise, when an economist takes their best shot at predicting the price change in a currency pair, I take it with the same grain of salt. I'd rather just trade on price action, because it involves far less effort, is consistent, and its success doesn't depend on me being clever that day. However, that is not to deny that research in the area of economics isn't interesting. It can be very interesting, it just doesn't make me any money. Will

More feedback from Michael H.:

I could very well be wrong but my sense is that for someone like Rose the blind spot will always be there. An epiphany could happen but it likely won’t. I don’t mean this to be derogatory towards Rose. If she has a way to make money with whatever her approach is, then good for her. That said, she appears to be awfully committed to vast amounts information to try and explain cause and effect. I have to admit that her most recent retort was difficult for me to follow and it’s possible I completely misunderstood the point she was trying to make. However, in one passage Rose states:

“Taking your point of view, I should not wonder why it is colder in January as compared to July, not study past weather reports of January in past years, and on that basis not have the useless information regarding the need to buy a winter coat.”

I’m admittedly not the brightest bulb on the tree, but as a life long resident of the mid-west, I have never once consulted past weather reports or other information to ascertain the need for a winter coat. If it’s cold, I wear the damn coat. As it relates to the markets, if price is moving higher, I am probably inclined to buy that market. What are historical weather reports going to tell me about today’s weather that I cannot learn for myself by standing outside on a winter day for about 10 seconds or so? Similarly, what are all of Rose’s sources of information going to tell her about market price that price itself is not already telling her? I’ve re-read what I typed above about 5 times now. I know what I am trying to say but fear that I did not articulate my point very clearly. In summary, Rose’s blind spot will likely always be there. Good luck trying to change her views.

No Convert

January 14, 2008

I alerted "Rose" to some of the discussion on this site regarding her initial post:

Michael: You have apparently chosen Mike Shell to speak on your behalf to uphold the nonsense you put out in your January 10th podcast, so I will assume Shell's words are yours. It appears that you both have decided to deny the existence of the philosophical field of causality, cause and effect is not interesting to either of you. Taking your point of view, I should not wonder why it is colder in January as compared to July, not study past weather reports of January in past years, and on that basis not have the useless information regarding the need to buy a winter coat. I should expect the temperature to change randomly, so that it could be freezing in July or September and I should just deal with it at the moment, follow the trend. Of course you would find the cause of seasons in North America, the tilted spinning axis of the earth, useless information, you claim not to be curious people. On that basis, all of modern medicine and other sciences which seek to find the why, would be useless information to you both also. If I had a heart attack I should not be curious about the cause and change my diet and quit smoking. That I should bear with it and wait for the next heart attack would probably be your advice. In the markets, on the first Friday of each month at 8:30 AM EST I should not expect or worry about the possibility of huge volatile spikes in the US dollar due to the Non Farm Payroll announcement, not seek to understand the cause of the price spike by reviewing past first Friday data reports so I could be prepared to avoid losses in my account. Instead I should just deal with it in the moment. This insanity that you propound does not require any further response or comments from myself. Michael, you do wonderful research on traders like The Turtles, Simons, Henry, and I enjoy reading your articles, research and your newsletter. Your work is wonderful. Are you not trying to learn the cause of these traders successes, the cause of their effect of success? I am prepared for winter being aware of the history of the seasons, having studied the past historical weather reports. I have a nice pine fire going in the fireplace here in the old farm house, and am looking for more fuel for the fire, anything that would burn well. Aha, here is a book, I can feed to the fire, titled "Trend Following". Goodbye, Rose.

Who has a good explanation that can win Rose over? Or is this truly a blind spot. I knew when I wrote "Trend Following" a few years back that her mindset was going to be a tough obstacle to overcome. While I appreciate that she likes my work, she also seems to miss the message.

Putting a Price on Happiness

A regular reader sent in this article on a study: Believing in an item’s worth makes us cheery - for a short time.

12 Weeks Straight

January 13, 2008

"The Complete TurtleTrader" continues to reach an audience. The Singapore Straits Times non-fiction bestsellers for January 13, 2008:

1. (7) Flying Star Feng Shui Made Easy by Lillian Too
2. (4) English As It Is Broken by The Straits Times
3. (3) Marley And Me: Life And Love With The World's Worst Dog
4. (1) The Secret by Rhonda Byrne
5. (5) Think Big And Kick Ass by Donald Trump and Bill Zanker
6. (6) The Age Of Turbulence by Alan Greenspan
7. (-) NS 40: In My Time by Mr Miyagi
8. (10) I Can Make You Rich by Paul McKenna
9. (9) The Complete TurtleTrader by Michael W. Covel
10. (2) Tuesdays With Morrie by Mitch Albom

One reader responded with:

From the recent blog entry at michhaelcovel.com: One can't help but question the credibility of the Singapore Straits Times list of bestsellers when you look at some of the entries...#4 - The Secret #5 - Think Big and Kick Ass. Even #6 is tenuous - The Age of Turbulence. Gimme a break!

The point is that a book, mine, while not exactly as mainstream as those titles, is finding an audience. I will take the the top 10 with Trump and Greenspan any day of the week.

NOTE: The Singapore rankings are a compilation of the week's bestseller lists from Books Kinokuniya, Borders, MPH, Page One VivoCity, Popular and Times bookstores.

More on the Blind Spot

January 12, 2008

More feedback on that dreaded blind spot:

Regarding "Blind Spot Continues".

Mike Shell
Shell Wealth Management, LLC

If the News Is So Important Why Do We Not Believe It?

From a news release:

FAIRFIELD, Conn. -- A Sacred Heart University Poll found significantly declining percentages of Americans saying they believe all or most of media news reporting. In the current national poll, just 19.6% of those surveyed could say they believe all or most news media reporting. This is down from 27.4% in 2003. Just under one-quarter, 23.9%, in 2007 said they believe little or none of reporting while 55.3% suggested they believe some media news reporting.

Read all.

Up and Down and No News

Feedback in:

I just read Rose's response's. Most people need/want others to know they are intellectually talented. If you can quantify fundamental crap, then you feel smart. If you can explain it to others, they make you feel smart. The markets can only do two things. Go up or go down. You really don't need to be super smart to figure this out. I don't give a S%$# why, or who said what 36 months ago, I just go long or short.

Walter B.

Barking Doggie

From Tarantino's classic Reservoir Dogs comes an interchange (MP3) between Mr. Blonde and Mr. White:

MR. BLONDE: Are you gonna bark all day, little doggie, or are you gonna bite?

MR. WHITE: What was that? I'm sorry, I didn't catch it. Would you repeat it?

MR. BLONDE: (slowly) Are you gonna bark all day, little doggie, or are you gonna bite?

Not many movies been made like that one.

Blind Spot Continues

I received this feedback. I asked her to re-listen to the podcast in question. She responded:

Michael; As you recommended, I listened again very carefully to your verbal piece in your January 10th Newsletter, several times. While I disagree with most of it, in the last few sentences you seem to say that despite what macroecon or news events happen in a day, there will be people who are nuts, or have their own unknown motives, and they will cause a move un-related to the day's macroecon and news event history. I can agree with this, the trader should go with the flow, whether created by nuts or by the macroecon and news. However, you can't just dismiss the whole body of data reporting, macroecon events, and news events that you can see move the market as plainly as you see the nose on your face. So I have an impasse with you. You cannot possibly be serious in your proposal that studying all aspects of the history of a trading day cannot be extremely illuminating in what causes market forces, although I agree that some part of a trading day may often be attributed to what you call nuts, and what I call needs of traders. Regards, Rose.

The blind spot is bigger.

German Edition of "The Complete TurtleTrader" Published

January 11, 2008

The German edition of "The Complete TurtleTrader" is out. Börsenmedien AG is the publisher. They published my first book too.

Portfolio Ego

This article made me think of those people who fall in love with their particular "market" to the exclusion of better information. How much does ego play in market selection and then the continued adherence to those choices? I saw a once large fund hold true to their portfolio size (smaller number of markets) for the longest time in spite of what their competitors were doing successfully (more markets). This one fund eventually added more markets.

How To Meet People?

An email in:

Hi Michael, I am looking for some help and to be absolutely honest with you I really don‚t know where to start. I will give you a little background about myself... I started trading 10 years ago and on the whole it has been a disastrous experience. I learned the hard way that I wasn't designed for short term trading or fundamental analysis and so when I stumbled across your website I immediately recognized I had the answer. I completed my system in November 2005 and to date the return is in excess of 50%. I am lucky to have a father with a gift for programming and so we were able to back-test 25 markets over 30 years which gave me the confidence to trade what I believed would be a winning system. What is certain is that without your website the system may not have been possible or would have taken considerably longer, so thank you. I currently have a small capital base and while I'm delighted with the returns they are in no way life changing. I am assuming you come into contact with a lot of people like me and I want to know whether the best route is to build one's own client base or cold call every Hedge Fund and CTA to see if they would be interested in backing a system, or something else. I will no doubt employ all possible strategies but would very much like to hear any advice you may have. Thanks in advance for your time.

Regards,
Stuart

You bring up tough issues. Many of these issues hit at explaining why some Turtles were not able to make it after the program ended in 1988 (See chapters 11-13 of "The Complete TurtleTrader"). That something extra, that entrepreneurial ability that Jerry Parker and Salem Abraham possessed (as an example) speak to what it takes to really build - no matter what your business is. Specifically, in terms of meeting top people and learning from them, the Managed Funds Association is a great direction. There is no short answer though. Building a Rolodex takes time. In terms of capital, it sure seems that the traders I have met who don't have to close down if all of their clients take their money and go home are in a much better position. Simple statement yes, but a lot behind it.

Covel Is A Nut!

January 09, 2008

I posted this podcast and received this response from Rose Pearl:

You are the one that is nutz! Regarding your "Listen Now" segment of your email newsletter of Thursday January 10th. Yes, of course one would be able to determine what market forces added to the movement of a specific market, on a specific day, or even during an hour of that day last week or last month if you still have all the data and reports for that day. I do it every day. Everybody does it. Are you aware of a subject at universities called "History" that students and professors study and research to try and understand why certain events occurred in the past? The present administration in the White House in Washington DC possibly has never heard of History, they forgot to read a history of Arabia and the Middle East for the last 100 years before creating the disaster in Iraq. I can only make sense of a day of trading after I sit down after quitting for the day to relate the market moves to macroeconomic events. For instance once source reported today that Moodys is considering decreasing their rating on the US dollar. Zooom! Right at that time, at about 0800 EST today, up goes the euro. These things happen hour by hour, minute by minute. Jean Claude Trichet says he is biased towards inflation, and the euro becomes well bid. So if I didn't get a clear picture of what happened last week on Tuesday, I sit down with all my printouts of my sources for that day and put together the whole picture. That gives insight on how to handle similar events while trading at a future moment. That's what History has been useful for over thousands of years. Your piece is totally ridiculous. Are you telling me you don't try to figure out what happened in the past by using the data from that day? You are kidding, right? Your piece was just meant to gather infuriating responses, right?

I don't think Rose has read either of my books. But she responds:

Michael; Yes, I have read Trend Following, a very good book, I keep it on the small shelf right above my main monitor. I have not yet read The Complete Turtle Trader, but I will. I do follow prices, while fundamentals and technicals are fascinating and often the impetus for a move, I believe it is necessary to first believe what the trend of prices are doing, the reaction. But back to your verbal piece in the last newsletter, the fact remains that markets move, probably initially, because of some news or macroecon event, the price then being modified by the needs of the traders in the market. So your rant on how imbecilic it is to study the past macroeconomic and news reports, the history, disbelieving that it will help a trader understand what happened, is ridiculous. Whatever a trader can understand about market reaction to past events, can help him/her understand what is happening in the present, hopefully preserving capital, or realizing gain. You need to recant. Regards, Rose.

The blind spot continues...

C & D Commodities Broker Ticket

One of the Turtles Lucy Wyatt Mattinen sent me an original C & D Commodities broker ticket. Here is a scan. C & D was Richard Dennis' firm.

Campaign Talk Gives Market Jitters

From the WSJ comes:

Recession. Inflation. Frozen credit markets. Falling profits. There is a lot for investors to worry about and now, here comes more: the looming presidential election. Worry about possible policy changes can weigh on markets ahead of a presidential vote. If an incumbent seems likely to win, markets often recover by the fall. This year, with many of the candidates on both sides promising change, the risk is that the market jitters could linger.

My head is spinning. This article makes it sound like all "investors" are simpletons waiting for permission to stop crying. People who really make money are not sitting around cowering in the corner waiting for the world to hit them in the face. The people making money, the people making "it" happen are hitting the world in the face.

Predictive v. Reactive

January 07, 2008

In my book Trend Following I make the distinction between predictive and reactive technical analysis (no small distinction). I am not sure this author gets the distinction. Reactive technical analysis or if you call it systems trading or if you call it trend following is all about the use of the scientific method.

Fat Tails and Nonlinearity

January 06, 2008

Food for thought (PDF) from Legg Mason's Michael Mauboussin.

Continued Bestseller

"The Complete TurtleTrader" continues to reach an audience. The Singapore Straits Times non-fiction bestsellers for January 6, 2008:

1. (1) The Secret by Rhonda Byrne
2. (2) Tuesdays With Morrie by Mitch Albom
3. (3) Marley And Me: Life And Love With The World's Worst Dog
4. (4) English As It Is Broken by The Straits Times
5. (5) Think Big And Kick Ass by Donald Trump and Bill Zanker
6. (6) The Age Of Turbulence by Alan Greenspan
7. (-) Flying Star Feng Shui Made Easy by Lillian Too
8. (7) Having It All by John Assaraf
9. (8) The Complete TurtleTrader by Michael W. Covel
10. (9) I Can Make You Rich by Paul McKenna

Bubbles Are Tough to Predict

January 05, 2008

Shrewd buying helped Jose Mugrabi build the world's largest private stash of Andy Warhol's art. And his tale is one that all investors should read.

A New Head for Hedge Fund Association?

I interviewed Congressman Richard Baker (R) for my film. He is looking at a new job.

The Secret to Raising Smart Kids Should Not Be A Secret

January 04, 2008

Hint: Don't tell your kids that they are. More than three decades of research shows that a focus on effort - not on intelligence or ability - is key to success in school and in life. More.

The Real Estate Winds Change

Funny.

The Median Isn't the Message by Stephen Jay Gould

January 02, 2008

A conversation about a friend's cancer came up today. I immediately thought of a chapter in Stephen Jay Gould's book "Full House". A quick search brought up the relevant passage. Of course, that "way" of thinking applies to all aspects of life.

The Complete TurtleTrader Book Jacket

A PDF of "The Complete TurtleTrader" book jacket.

Top Amazon Reviewers Give Thumbs Up to "The Complete TurtleTrader"

"The Complete TurtleTrader" has received very positive reviews from an assortment of top Amazon reviewers:

Grady Harp's Profile (TOP 10 REVIEWER)
Robert D. Steele's Profile (TOP 50 REVIEWER)
K. Corn's Profile (TOP 100 REVIEWER)
magellan's Profile (TOP 100 REVIEWER)
Thomas Duff's Profile (TOP 100 REVIEWER)
mirasreviews' Profile (TOP 500 REVIEWER)
Craig L. Howe's Profile (TOP 500 REVIEWER)
Loyd E. Eskildson's Profile (TOP 500 REVIEWER)
Jeff Lippincott's Profile (TOP 1000 REVIEWER)
Steve Burns' Profile (TOP 1000 REVIEWER)
D. Buxman's Profile (TOP 1000 REVIEWER)

The Black Swan Review

January 01, 2008

A review of (part 1 & part 2) The Black Swan forwarded to me by one of the Turtles.

Reaching An Audience

The Complete TurtleTrader continues to reach an audience. These pictures were snapped at the front door entrance of a Barnes and Noble at one of the largest malls in the United States (Tysons Corner Mall in Virginia). My five-year-old nephew spotted it: